Archive - Unexpected Points

2026 NFL Offseason: Improvement Index for all 32 teams

Projecting point-differential gains and losses based on offseason moves for every NFL team

Mar 11 • Kevin Cole

Winners and Losers of the NFL Combine: Offensive Positions

Applying modeling based on 15-plus years of combine data to the 2026 NFL draft class for running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and offensive…

Mar 3 • Kevin Cole

Winners and Losers of the NFL Combine: Defensive Positions

Applying modeling based on 15-plus years of combine data to the 2026 NFL draft class for defensive linemen, linebackers and defensive backs

Mar 2 • Kevin Cole

February 2026

Super Bowl LX Patriots-Seahawks: Advanced Review

The Seahawks defense shines in the biggest game of the season, with their offense managing the game and avoiding losses

Feb 9 • Kevin Cole

NFL Plus/Minus: Myles Garrett is the Defensive Player of the Year (Again)

Using historical on-off the field splits and player clustering to estimate value of defenders

Feb 5 • Kevin Cole

NFL Plus/Minus: Who Should Be The 2025 NFL Offensive Player Of The Year?

Using proprietary NFL Plus/Minus methodology to concretely assign value to all non-quarterback offensive players

Feb 3 • Kevin Cole

January 2026

Super Bowl NFL Power Rankings

The Super Bowl looks fairly even by my numbers, with neither team looking like a dominant force

Jan 28 • Kevin Cole

Conference Championship: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Broncos-Patriots & Seahawks-Rams

Jan 26 • Kevin Cole

Conference Championship NFL Power Rankings

The top-3 2025 performers are into the Conference Championships, and how do we adjust for the Broncos' new quarterback?

Jan 20 • Kevin Cole

Divisional Round Sunday Football: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Patriots-Texans & Bears-Rams

Jan 19 • Kevin Cole

Divisional Round Saturday Football: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Broncos-Bills & Seahawks-49ers

Jan 18 • Kevin Cole

Divisional Round NFL Power Rankings

The Rams continue on a dream path to the Super Bowl, with the Bills enjoying an enormous quarterback advantage

Jan 14 • Kevin Cole

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