The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2022-2026 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Eagles vs Cowboys (-4.5, 66%)
Strong win for the Dallas Cowboys on the road against what was supposed to be a good Philadelphia Eagles defense, putting up 416 yards (198 on designed runs) and 38 points. The adjusted scores had the Cowboys as the clearly better team, with a 17-point actual differential and 8-point adjusted differential, as the Cowboys offense was consistently better at making positive plays (54.5% success rate to 42.6%), plus winning the turnover and late-down advantages.
The game was fairly tight through the mid-third quarter, after the Eagles took the second-half kickoff and drove down the field over the course of 9 minutes and 16 took a one-point lead (21-20). The estimated win probability at that point was as low as 59.8% for the Cowboys, before they scored 18 points on their four second-half drives and pulled away.
Both teams performed well on late downs, especially so for the Cowboys, converting 8 of 13 third downs (+12.7 EPA) and their only fourth try (+2.0). The combination of third and fourth down the Eagles converted in normal play or via penalty totalled +13.3 EPA, helping keep them in the game, despite weaker efficiency on a per-play basis.