The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Cardinals vs Broncos (-4.5, 67%)
The Denver Broncos won convincingly against the Arizona Cardinals, getting their offense going by EPA efficiency (+0.17 per play, 78th percentile), but only posting a 39% success rate (in non-garbage time, < 99% win probability). They were even better defensively, holding the Cardinals to a 33% success rate and only 4.7 yards per play. The Broncos never trailed with their lowest in-game WP at 61.1% (Q2 6:19), against 67.6% pregame.
Neither team was great on late downs, which contributed to the Broncos underperforming in EPA relative to their outstanding 7.0 yards per play (91st percentile).
