The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2026-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Seahawks (-3, 58%) vs Chiefs
The Seattle Seahawks got a dominant defensive performance in the win over the Kansas City Chiefs, with the help of incredible third-down conversion success and a couple of Chiefs’ missed field goals. Seattle never trailed, and its lowest WP was 52.8%, not far off from pre-game 58%.
The Seahawks defense held the Chiefs offense to 37% offensive success rate (excluding garbage time, < 1% WP), 4.3 yards per play, and 23rd percentile EPA efficiency.
The Seahawks went 11 of 16 on third down for an insane +18.9 EPA, while the Chiefs went 3 of 11 for -2.7, or net +22.6 advantage for the winners. Weirdly the EPA model gave the Seahawks -1.6 in value on their final, game-sealing 4th and 1 conversion, so that can be ignored.
