The QB GOAT Series: 10-7

A young gun moves above legends, and the greatest mid-career breakout in NFL history

• You can find all the QB GOAT posts here

I wrote up the updated methodology and highlighted a handful of current quarterbacks who fall inside of the top-100, but outside the top-50.

I don’t agree 100% with all the rankings, but the beauty of stats-based analysis is that we can take representative data from nearly one million of quarterback dropbacks over nearly a century of the modern NFL to rank-order quarterbacks by value. Good luck watching, grading and comparing every quarterback snap from 1947 to 2024 and then forming your own film-watcher list.

On the career plots, you’ll see indications for Pro Bowl (PB), All-Pro Second-Team (AP2), All-Pro First-Team (AP1) and Most Valuable Player (MVP) regular seasons. I’ve also added an image of the Super Bowl trophy for championship seasons.

Without further ado, the 10th-7th most value quarterbacks in NFL history. For those who didn’t play the last two years, I’ll post the rankings and career-value graph, with a link to my previous post with my commentary on that quarterback.

Links to past posts:

• 50-46

• 45-41

• 40-36

• 35-31

• 30-26

• 25-21

• 20-16

• 15-11

No. 10: JOHNNY UNITAS

Regular: 10th, Peak: 12th, Playoffs: 20th

Unitas falls one spot from two years back, and you’ll see why a couple spots below this.

You can find the full commentary on Unitas’s career here.

For someone commonly seen as the great quarterback ever pre-Manning/Brady, this is a lower ranking for Johnny Unitas. Like some others we’ve seen, Unitas is a victim of his own longevity, with his final three seasons subtracting value from his total. Without those years, he jumps into the top-7 on this list.

Unitas began his career adding value in 12 straight seasons, winning three MVPs and selected as First-Team All Pro in another two seasons. Unitas seven All-Pro seasons ranks second to only Peyton Manning (10). Unitas led the NFL in passing efficiency (ANY/A) four times, with a total of eight seasons in the top-3.

Unitas wasn’t just an efficiency quarterback, he was the focal point of the passing attack in an era that emphasized running the ball. Unitas led the NFL in pass attempts and passing yards four times, despite playing and strong teams that were often leading. When Unitas retired in 1973, he was the all-time passing leader with 40,239 yards (7K more than Y.A. Tittle) and 290 touchdowns (48 more than Tittle).

No. 9: OTTO GRAHAM

Regular: 11th, Peak: 8th, Playoffs: 15th

Graham falls one spot with the rise of current superstar (spoiler alert!) Patrick Mahomes.

You can find the full commentary for Graham’s career here.

Otto Graham achieved some of the highest highs as a player, but his shorter longevity keeps him out of true GOAT discussions. He also played the first few years of his career in the All-American Football Conference (AAFC), an upstart venture that only lasted from 1946 to 1949, and suffered from a lack of talent in comparison to established NFL. Graham does suffer a little from not having his 1946 season make the starting timeframe for this analysis, which goes from 1947. Graham had a great passing season (10.5 yards per attempt) in his rookie year, but at lower volume (174 attempts). Graham’s 112.1 quarterback rating that season wasn’t surpassed for 49 years, by Joe Montana in 1989.

Three of Graham’s four most valuable seasons by QB GOAT methodology came in his first three seasons in the AAFC, while the Browns dominated all opponents, going a combined 37-4-3 from 1946 to 1949 and winning all four AAFC championships. The AAFC didn’t start with collegiate draft, and instead allowed teams to sign players to seed the league. This proved a huge advantage for Paul Brown, who had extensive contacts to sign players out of school and military, including paying Graham a stipend for a year before he was discharged from the Navy in the summer of 1946.

Regardless of the competition in the AAFC, you can’t argue that Graham should have done more with what he was given. From 1947 to 1949, Graham was selected as First-Team All-Pro every year, led the AAFC in passing yards each season. He also was a good athlete, running for a total of 253 yards and nine touchdowns in 1948 and 1949.

No. 8: PATRICK MAHOMES

Regular: 17th, Peak: 10th, Playoffs: 6th