The QB GOAT Series: 50-46

Some of these quarterbacks failed in the playoffs, others had tremendous late-career jumps into the elite

• You can find all the QB GOAT posts here

This is the second installment of the updated QB GOAT series, but the first to delve into the top-50. I wrote up the updated methodology and highlighted a handful of current quarterbacks who fall inside of the top-100, but outside the top-50. Now, I’m getting to the real list.

I don’t agree 100% with all the rankings, but the beauty of stats-based analysis is that we can take representative data from nearly one million of quarterback dropbacks over nearly a century of the modern NFL to rank-order quarterbacks by value. Good luck watching, grading and comparing every quarterback snap from 1947 to 2024 and then forming your own film-watcher list.

On the career plots, you’ll see indications for Pro Bowl (PB), All-Pro Second-Team (AP2), All-Pro First-Team (AP1) and Most Valuable Player (MVP) regular seasons. I’ve also added an image of the Super Bowl trophy for championship seasons.

Without further ado, the 46th-50th most value quarterbacks in NFL history. For those who didn’t play the last two years, I’ll post the rankings and career-value graph, with a link to my previous post with my commentary on that quarterback.

No. 50: BILLY KILMER

Regular: 52nd, Peak: 56th, Playoffs: 37th

Billy Kilmer was ranked 46th two years back, leapfrogged by a handful of current quarterbacks who accumulated value over that time.

How Kilmer gets himself into the top-50 most valuable quarterbacks, despite an incredibly slow start to his career, his is playoff success. Kilmer wasn’t hugely efficient in the playoffs, but he always played at a level good enough to give his team a chance to win. He started seven playoff games for Redskins, going all the way to the Super Bowl in 1973, losing to the Miami Dolphins. That many playoff appearances gave Kilmer a lot of volume to accumulate playoff value, which is weighed more heavily in my QB GOAT methodology.

I think Kilmer has one of the weaker Hall-of-Fame cases for quarterbacks who made the top-50, but things could have been very different if he found a good home earlier in his career.

You an find my full commentary on Kilmer’s career here

No. 49: DONOVAN MCNABB

Regular: 36th, Peak: 48th, Playoffs: 78th