The QB GOAT Series: 30-26

Russell moves up the rankings (slightly), into the top-30 with quarterbacks almost entirely destined for the Hall of Fame

• You can find all the QB GOAT posts here

I wrote up the updated methodology and highlighted a handful of current quarterbacks who fall inside of the top-100, but outside the top-50.

I don’t agree 100% with all the rankings, but the beauty of stats-based analysis is that we can take representative data from nearly one million of quarterback dropbacks over nearly a century of the modern NFL to rank-order quarterbacks by value. Good luck watching, grading and comparing every quarterback snap from 1947 to 2024 and then forming your own film-watcher list.

On the career plots, you’ll see indications for Pro Bowl (PB), All-Pro Second-Team (AP2), All-Pro First-Team (AP1) and Most Valuable Player (MVP) regular seasons. I’ve also added an image of the Super Bowl trophy for championship seasons.

Without further ado, the 35th-31st most value quarterbacks in NFL history. For those who didn’t play the last two years, I’ll post the rankings and career-value graph, with a link to my previous post with my commentary on that quarterback.

Links to past posts:

• 50-46

• 45-41

• 40-36

• 35-31

No. 30: BEN ROETHLISBERGER

Regular: 20th, Peak: 44th, Playoffs: 35th

Roethisberger fell one spot from his previous ranking. You can find his entire career commentary here

Ben Roethlisberger falls into a similar bucket with a good number of franchise quarterbacks: consistently valuable until a late-career decline, but never a consistently top-3 quarterback. In an earlier era, that profile might not be enough to warrant a Hall-of-Fame induction. But the decades of the 2000s and 2010s were the most competitive ever at quarterback (2020s not stacking up quite as well, so far), so never being able to break through and best the entirety of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in any season is understandable, even for an elite quarterback. What separates Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson (QB GOAT No. 30) and their Hall-of-Fame credentials from Tony Romo (QB GOAT No. 32), Philip Rivers (TBD) and Matt Ryan (TBD) are the Super Bowl appearances and victories.

Roethlisberger was one of the most successful quarterbacks of his era in Super Bowl success. On it’s face, the resume of three Super Bowl wins and another appearance doesn’t project as dominance, but Roethlisberger’s era and conference overlapped with Brady and the Patriots going to eight Super Bowls. Without giving extra credit for winning the Super Bowl, on top of the playoff QB GOAT value methodology, Roethlisberger doesn’t rank higher than Rivers and Ryan, but his Hall-of-Fame selection is locked in with the two rings.

Roethlisberger was a lower-volume, but incredibly efficient quarterback from his first snap. Famously entering the NFL in the same draft as Eli Manning and Philip Rivers, Roethlisberger outperformed them both initially as the No. 11 pick. Roethlisberger replaced Tommy Maddox midway through the third quarter Week 2 of his rookie season, then went on to start the next 13 games, winning all of them. Roethlisberger won Offensive Rookie of the Year, finishing seventh in ANY/A and adding another 12 first-down conversions on the ground.

No. 29: KEN STABLER

Regular: 74th, Peak: 34th, Playoffs: 4th

Stabler fell one spot from his previous ranking. You can find his entire career commentary here

Ken Stabler has a unique profile in this list, a few years of strong regular season peak, outstanding performances in the playoffs, yet enough little-or-negative value seasons to mitigate a lot of his career value. Stabler started slow to his career, drafted by the Raiders in 1968, yet not playing until 1970, even then a backup to Daryle Lamonica until 1973, his age-28 season. Over Stabler’s first five starting seasons, he made the Pro Bowl four times, All-Pro selection twice, and MVP once. Stabler finished 9th, 1st, 12th, 2nd and 7th in ANY/A during that stretch.

From 1978 on, Stabler didn’t add much value, losing his scrambling ability to injuries. But the Oilers and Saints won more games than lost in his starts (27-23), supported by strong defenses and rushing attacks. Stabler only averaged roughly 150 passing yards per game in his four starting seasons from 1980 to 1983.

No. 28: RUSSELL WILSON

Regular: 25th, Peak: 50th, Playoffs: 19th