The QB GOAT Series: 15-11
Two great quarterbacks without much playoff success, one who helped redefine NFL offense, perhaps the greatest gunslinger and the most unlikely career arc
I don’t agree 100% with all the rankings, but the beauty of stats-based analysis is that we can take representative data from nearly one million of quarterback dropbacks over nearly a century of the modern NFL to rank-order quarterbacks by value. Good luck watching, grading and comparing every quarterback snap from 1947 to 2024 and then forming your own film-watcher list.
On the career plots, you’ll see indications for Pro Bowl (PB), All-Pro Second-Team (AP2), All-Pro First-Team (AP1) and Most Valuable Player (MVP) regular seasons. I’ve also added an image of the Super Bowl trophy for championship seasons.
Without further ado, the 15th-11th most value quarterbacks in NFL history. For those who didn’t play the last two years, I’ll post the rankings and career-value graph, with a link to my previous post with my commentary on that quarterback.
Links to past posts:
No. 15: PHILIP RIVERS
Regular: 14th, Peak: 15th, Playoffs: 35th
You can find the entire commentary on Rivers’ career here.
This is going to be a shocker for many to see, perhaps, Hall-of-Fame-adjacent Philip Rivers so high on the list. But the numbers and efficiency Rivers displayed during his career can’t be denied. After being the No. 4 overall pick in the 2004 NFL draft and sitting behind Drew Brees for two seasons, Rivers only produced one single negative efficiency season over the next 14 seasons, with at least six years of All-Pro level efficiency, though zero First- or Second-Team All Pro selections.
Rivers received MVP or Offensive Player of the Year votes in 2008, 2009, and 2010, leading the NFL in yards per attempt each season. Rivers probably didn’t fully receive the plaudits he deserved early in his career playing alongside Hall of Famer LaDainlian Tomlinson, who was MVP and OPOY in 2006, and an All-Pro selection in every season from 2002 to 2007.
The Chargers also didn’t have great playoff success, despite making the postseason four straight years from 2006 to 2009. Over his career, Rivers went 5-7 in the playoffs, but his 6.3 ANY/A over 424 dropbacks was strong. Even in Rivers’ seven losses in the playoffs, he averaged 6.0 ANY/A, losing three games by a field goal. Rivers played with a bottom-10 defense by EPA per play in roughly half of his starting seasons, explaining why he missed the playoffs around the same proportion on his career.
No. 14: BRETT FAVRE
Regular: 18th, Peak: 17th, Playoffs: 14th
You can find the entire commentary on Favre’s career here.
Brett Favre has almost as many accolades as any quarterback, winning three MVPs (back-to-back-to-back), three First-Team and three Second-Team All-Pro selections, quarterback for the Hall-of-Fame All-1990s Team, and one of 10 quarterbacks all-time on the NFL100 team. Favre is tied for second with Peyton Manning for most regular season wins (186), and is tied for the seventh most playoffs wins (13). When Favre retired, he had the most yards and touchdowns ever, and still ranks fourth in each category, behind Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Manning.
Favre was generally considered highly engaging to watch, and his carefree yet never-give-up style made all Packers games must-watch television, and likely helped him earn some plaudits that many not have been fully earned. The high and positives with Favre were extremely high, but his style of play also resulted in lows. Favre is still the all-time leader in interceptions and fumbles, two records that likely will never be broken as the league-wide rates of both have declined over time. Favre only led the NFL in passing efficiency once (6.25 ANY/A in 1995), but he was a high volume passer, consistently topping 550 attempts, leading the league three times.
No. 13: KURT WARNER
Regular: 29th, Peak: 19th, Playoffs: 7th
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