The QB GOAT Series: 11-9

A quarterback on the GOAT trajectory, the most well-regarded ever, and one who provokes debates on stats versus system

I wrote up the methodology for how I measure quarterback career value and highlighted a few honorable mentions in a post last week.

I don’t agree 100% with all the rankings, but the beauty of stats-based analysis is that we can take representative data from nearly one million quarterback dropbacks over a century of the modern NFL to rank-order quarterbacks by value. Good luck watching, grading and comparing every quarterback snap from 1947 to 2022 and then forming your own film-watcher list.

I’m going to take this list in smallish chucks, going three-at-a-time until I get to the final two, who you might be able to guess, though the ordering may remain a mystery.

Links to past posts:

• 50-48, 47-45, 44-42, 41-39, 38-36, 35-33, 32-30, 29-27, 26-24, 23-21, 20-18, 17-15, 14-12

No. 11: PATRICK MAHOMES

Regular: 18th, Peak: 10th, Playoffs: 7th

Patrick Mahomes at No. 11 overall quarterback in NFL history, only six seasons after being drafted, might seem absurd to a lot of people. But with another Super Bowl victory and MVP season, the general perception on Mahomes is coming around to him being on the GOAT trajectory. What’s good about the QB GOAT methodology is that it has an explicit formula to try and answer the value question, so we can see specifically how Mahomes gets to being so high.

In each of Mahomes’ five starting seasons at quarterback, he’s achieved total value at least two standard deviations above average. Mahomes’ career 8.1 ANY/A is the greatest of all time, a full 0.7 yards per dropback higher than second-place Aaron Rodgers’ (7.4). Obviously, there are era adjustments needed here, but Mahomes’ career average is lapping the current field as well, a full yard better than Deshaun Watson, 1.3 yard above Joe Burrow, 1.4 higher than Justin Herbert and 1.6 yards away from Josh Allen. In the previous “greatest era” of quarterback play, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo all have passing efficiency within a quarter of a yard per dropback.

What Mahomes has done since 2018 is truly extraordinary in league history. His total value added over his first six seasons is higher than any quarterback ever, according to the QB GOAT methodology (Dan Marino is a fairly close second) - even though he had fewer than 50 dropbacks as a rookie. Mahomes already has three regular seasons that rank in the top-50 value-add ever, tied for second only to Manning and Steve Young with four. Mahomes’ peak value add ranks 10th of all-time, even though his top-5 seasons equals all five of his starting seasons, with no room for a down year in the calculation.

It’s not only that Mahomes has been extremely efficient (four years of top-2 ANY/A), but his volume is also massive, second to only Tom Brady in total pass attempts since 2018, first in passing yards (900 more than Brady) and touchdowns (30 more than Rodgers. Looking at expected points added (EPA, a more advanced metric for seasons since 2021), Mahomes has added more points dropping back to pass and rushing than any quarterback in every season since 2018 except 2020, when he ranked second.

You could even argue Mahomes’ rushing ability is undervalued in the methodology just looking at yards and touchdowns, when he such an opportunistic and effective scramble. EPA, which accounts for context, measures his scramble value contribution since 2018 only second to Josh Allen.

Mahomes has compiled his production by being good at every component of passing efficiency. He hasn’t had a single below average (100 being average in the table above) component in any season. The “worst” parts of his game are completion percentage and interception rate, two components that he willing to sacrifice to boost overall efficiency. The most under-appreciated and consistent part of Mahomes’ game is sack avoidance, registering a sack rate at least one standard deviation better than league average in every season.

While I understood that Mahomes has been excellent in the playoff, leading the Chiefs to five straight Conference Championships, three Super Bowl appearances and two trophies, his career playoff value add of sixth ever higher than I expected. Mahomes 7.7 ANY/A is slightly worse than his regular season average, but still an MVP-type number, and combined with enough volume to equal 523 pass attempts in 14 postseason starts.

So how far does Mahomes have to go to get to GOAT status in concrete terms? By QB GOAT methodology, he’d need at least another five seasons at the level he’s played the last five, plus a bit of a boost in peak, which will happen if he only outplays his worst season so far. Mahomes has the best chance of any active player of getting there, but it’s far from written in stone.

No. 10: DAN FOUTS

Regular: 9th, Peak: 7th, Playoffs: 31st