The QB GOAT Series: 35-31

The two best quarterbacks over the last couple years enter the rankings, two underrated efficiency stars higher than you'd think, and an all-time great who might be undervalued

• You can find all the QB GOAT posts here

I wrote up the updated methodology and highlighted a handful of current quarterbacks who fall inside of the top-100, but outside the top-50.

I don’t agree 100% with all the rankings, but the beauty of stats-based analysis is that we can take representative data from nearly one million of quarterback dropbacks over nearly a century of the modern NFL to rank-order quarterbacks by value. Good luck watching, grading and comparing every quarterback snap from 1947 to 2024 and then forming your own film-watcher list.

On the career plots, you’ll see indications for Pro Bowl (PB), All-Pro Second-Team (AP2), All-Pro First-Team (AP1) and Most Valuable Player (MVP) regular seasons. I’ve also added an image of the Super Bowl trophy for championship seasons.

Without further ado, the 35th-31st most value quarterbacks in NFL history. For those who didn’t play the last two years, I’ll post the rankings and career-value graph, with a link to my previous post with my commentary on that quarterback.

Links to past posts:

• 50-46

• 45-41

• 40-36

No. 35: TRENT GREEN

Regular: 32nd, Peak: 22nd, Playoffs: 70th

Trent Green is going to be one of the most shocking inclusions in the top-35 quarterbacks, but it’s hard to argue that he wasn’t consistently a highly efficient quarterback. It took a few years for Green to see serious NFL action, never playing for the San Diego Chargers as an eight-round selection, going up-and-back to the CFL, then sitting for a season in Washington. In 1998, Green played in 15 games, wasn’t particularly efficient (5.5 ANY/A), but showed potential. Excluding sacks, Green was a top-half efficiency quarterback, but he led the NFL is sacks (49) and sack yards lost (338).

Green was a free agent after the 1999 season, but missed the entire year after a serious knee injury in the preseason, and Kurt Warner stepped in to win MVP and lead the Rams to the Super Bowl. Green was then shifted to Warner’s back, but performed well in five starts when Warner broke his hand, posting 7.6 ANY/A (only marginally lower than Warner’s NFL-best 8.0). In fact, Green showed so much promise between unlucky events that the Chiefs parted with the 12th overall pick to acquire him from the Rams in 2001.

You can find the entire commentary on Green’s career here

No. 34: TONY ROMO

Regular: 22nd, Peak: 32nd, Playoffs: 70th

Tony Romo’s career is a great Rorschach test to reveal the observer’s appreciate of player contribution in light of team results. Romo added value through his passing efficiency to the Cowboys every single season he attempted at least 200 passes, nine years from 2006-2014. His regular season ANY/A rankings during that stretch were fifth, fifth, seventh, fourth, eighth, sixth, 14th, ninth and second. And Romo’s career heavily overlapped with some of the most efficient passer ever, including (spoiler alert!) top-10 QB GOAT finishers Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and, to a lesser degree, Aaron Rodgers. Romo “only” had one Second-Team All-Pro selection, but even Brees never won MVP (though five All-Pro selections) with the other all-time greats gobbling up all the top accolades. Consistently finishing in the top 2-8 in the greatest era of passing efficiency is more of an accomplishment than it superficially appears.

Romo was certainly a regular season winner with a final starting record of 78-49, but the Cowboys record was good enough to make the playoffs in four of his nine strong efficiency seasons. As much as many try and separate the player from his surroundings, it’s very likely the poor Cowboys defenses during Romo’s starting seasons and their effect on the team’s results negatively colored opinions of Romo. From 2006 to 2014, the Cowboys defense only finished in the top-10 for opponent expected points added (EPA) per play once (eighth in 2009), and their pass defense never ranked better than 14th. In five of nine season the Cowboys defensive efficiency ranked in the bottom-10.

You can find the entire commentary on Romo’s career here

No. 33: LAMAR JACKSON

Regular: 31st, Peak: 24th, Playoffs: 64th