The QB GOAT Series: 25-21

A legend, an under-ranked all-time talent, and some grea, long careers

• You can find all the QB GOAT posts here

I wrote up the updated methodology and highlighted a handful of current quarterbacks who fall inside of the top-100, but outside the top-50.

I don’t agree 100% with all the rankings, but the beauty of stats-based analysis is that we can take representative data from nearly one million of quarterback dropbacks over nearly a century of the modern NFL to rank-order quarterbacks by value. Good luck watching, grading and comparing every quarterback snap from 1947 to 2024 and then forming your own film-watcher list.

On the career plots, you’ll see indications for Pro Bowl (PB), All-Pro Second-Team (AP2), All-Pro First-Team (AP1) and Most Valuable Player (MVP) regular seasons. I’ve also added an image of the Super Bowl trophy for championship seasons.

Without further ado, the 35th-31st most value quarterbacks in NFL history. For those who didn’t play the last two years, I’ll post the rankings and career-value graph, with a link to my previous post with my commentary on that quarterback.

Links to past posts:

• 50-46

• 45-41

• 40-36

• 35-31

• 30-26

No. 25: MATT RYAN

Regular: 26th, Peak: 23rd, Playoffs: 26th

Ryan moved up one spot in the rankings from two years back. The reason for the move is a bit confusing, as he didn’t play any more downs over the last two years. Without getting into the minute details, the era-adjustments for the 2021 and 2022 seasons are affected by baseline changes in the rolling averages that now include the 2023 and 2024 seasons, which were relatively poor years for quarterback play. Lowering those baselines gives Ryan a slight bit more credit for value in 2021 and 2022, moving him above Bart Starr.

You can find the entire commentary on Ryan’s career here.

Matt Ryan’s career value plot has its proportions somewhat thrown out of whack by his 2016 MVP regular season and playoff ride all the way to a Super Bowl appearance. Outside of that, Ryan had 12 other positive value seasons, only truly losing value in his final season in 2022.

Ryan’s impact on the Falcons franchise was immediate, after being taken third overall in the 2008 NFL draft. The franchise had been on a multi-year decline before taking Ryan, going from 11-5 and a trip to the Conference Championship in 2004, then falling for two seasons to 7-9 before Michael Vick was suspended, then all the way to 4-12 in 2007. The Falcons offense went from dead last in EPA per play in 2007 to seventh in Ryan’s rookie season, earning him Offensive Rookie of the Year honors and the Falcons an 11-5 record, playoff birth, and Wild Card loss.

Ryan may have gotten a little too much credit for the Falcons turnaround from the 4-12 finish the prior year. He was replacing Joey Harrington, statistically the worst quarterback in the NFL, the roster included 4x Pro Bowler and 1x All-Pro Roddy White in the prime of his career, and Michael Turner led a rushing attack that was second in the NFL in attempts and yards (at a healthy 4.5 yards per carry).

No. 24: NORM VAN BROCKLIN

Regular: 13th, Peak: 30th, Playoffs: 79th

You can find the entire commentary on Van Brocklin’s career here.

Norm Van Brocklin, aka “The Dutchman”, is one of the earliest players from what I defined as the modern era (post-1946). Van Brocklin was the most efficient passer of his era, finding postseason success with two NFL Championships, though a number of missed opportunities in four other playoff appearances, hurting his overall ranking in the QB GOAT countdown.

Van Brocklin was drafted in 1949, four years removed from serving in the Navy during World War II. He played sparingly as a rookie, then platooned with Bob Waterfield through 1952. It’s often said, “If you have two quarterbacks, you have none,” but Van Brocklin and Waterfield were the exception that proved the rule. In reality, perception of starting multiple quarterbacks is heavily influenced by selection bias: You’re often choosing to start two because neither one is any good. For the Rams in the early 1950s, they had two great quarterbacks, with Van Brocklin leading the league in adjusted yards per attempt in 1950 and 1952, and Waterfield doing so in 1951. The team went to the postseason all three seasons, lost 30-28 to the Browns in the 1950 NFL Championship (Waterfield played almost the entire game), beat the Browns to win the title in 1951 (Waterfield played more, but Van Brocklin playing much better), and then lost in the Divisional Round in 1952.

No. 23: JOHN BRODIE

Regular: 27th, Peak: 18th, Playoffs: 41st