The QB GOAT Series: 40-36

Two new additions to the top-50, with three more familiar names from the 1990s

• You can find all the QB GOAT posts here

I wrote up the updated methodology and highlighted a handful of current quarterbacks who fall inside of the top-100, but outside the top-50.

I don’t agree 100% with all the rankings, but the beauty of stats-based analysis is that we can take representative data from nearly one million of quarterback dropbacks over nearly a century of the modern NFL to rank-order quarterbacks by value. Good luck watching, grading and comparing every quarterback snap from 1947 to 2024 and then forming your own film-watcher list.

On the career plots, you’ll see indications for Pro Bowl (PB), All-Pro Second-Team (AP2), All-Pro First-Team (AP1) and Most Valuable Player (MVP) regular seasons. I’ve also added an image of the Super Bowl trophy for championship seasons.

Without further ado, the 44th-40th most value quarterbacks in NFL history. For those who didn’t play the last two years, I’ll post the rankings and career-value graph, with a link to my previous post with my commentary on that quarterback.

Links to past posts:

• 50-46

• 45-41

No. 40: MATTHEW STAFFORD

Regular: 46th, Peak: 62nd, Playoffs: 18th

We’ve finally arrived at a new addition to the QB GOAT top-50: Matthew Stafford. Much like Stafford's career, I’ve had a winding personal journey in evaluating just how good he was as a quarterback. Through his time with the Detroit Lions, I was mostly of the opinion that Stafford was a master stat-accumulator - not a true candidate to one day make the Hall of Fame.

The numbers displayed above give concrete context to why Stafford’s contributions may have been overrated with the Lions. Outside of an outstanding 2011 season (an outlier year when the passing stats for several top quarterbacks exploded), Stafford was slightly more efficient than you’d expect for an average NFL quarterback, with a few poor years dragging down his overall value-add. From 2009-2020, Stafford attempted the third most passes (5,751), and only trailed Matt Ryan and Drew Brees in attempts per game (37.8).

When it came to efficiency and team-level results, Stafford looked a bit more average. Among 30 quarterbacks who threw 2,000 passes during that time frame, Stafford ranked 13th in adjusted net-yards per attempt (6.45) - without adding much rushing value - and ranked 22nd in win percentage (46.7%). You can mock using “QB Winz” to judge quarterbacks, but it’s reasonable to assume that over 152 games an elite quarterback would produce, at least, a winning record.

Stafford’s transition and success moving to the Los Angeles Rams complicates his status greatly. Stafford had his best season, by far, in his first campaign with the Rams, posting career highs in passing efficiency (7.45 ANY/A) and leading his team to a Super Bowl victory. Importantly, with the QB GOAT formula placing oversized emphasis on postseason success, Stafford stepped up his game even further during that playoff run, throwing for nearly 300 yards per game (297.0) with a nine touchdowns and three inceptions for an 8.10 ANY/A. Stafford had been relatively decent in the playoffs with the Lions, but only had three games - all losses - to display his talents. Stafford more than doubled his playoff production in his four seasons with the Rams than he did in 12 years with the Lions.

Stafford’s QB GOAT rankings is somewhat held down by his “peak” rating, which accounts for a quarterback's top-5 regular seasons in value accumulation. Stafford only had one truly elite year with the Lions, and a couple more with the Rams. The lack of elite seasons is reflected in Stafford’s lack of NFL honors, with only two Pro Bowl appearances and zero First- or Second-Team All-Pro selections. It’s true that Stafford played during one of the most difficult eras to reach top-2 status for an NFL season, but you’d still like to see him competing for top honors more often; Stafford never received a first-place MVP vote during his career.

That leads us to the big question: Should Stafford make the Hall of Fame? The fact that some of the superficial-stat and vibes crowd had him as deserving before he came to the Rams has me leaning to “yes” on the question if he’ll make it. Stafford now has the Super Bowl ring and team-level success - although for a shorter run - to combine with counting stats that place him in 10th for career passing yards (59,809) and touchdowns (377).

With one more strong season, Stafford could jump to eighth overall in both categories, even leaping over an all-time great like Dan Marino in yards. I don’t have a strong opinion either way, but this methodology ranks several quarterbacks higher than Stafford who will be part of the Hall-of-Fame voting process around the same time (Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees). Not everyone can make it in, especially with a wild card like Eli Manning (96th in the QB GOAT rankings) taking a slot that could go to someone more deserving.

No. 39: DAK PRESCOTT

Regular: 34th, Peak: 39th, Playoffs: 42nd