The QB GOAT Series: 14-12

One all-time great, a historic and late NFL start, and a forgotten value machine

I wrote up the methodology for how I measure quarterback career value and highlighted a few honorable mentions in a post last week.

I don’t agree 100% with all the rankings, but the beauty of stats-based analysis is that we can take representative data from nearly one million quarterback dropbacks over a century of the modern NFL to rank-order quarterbacks by value. Good luck watching, grading and comparing every quarterback snap from 1947 to 2022 and then forming your own film-watcher list.

I’m going to take this list in smallish chucks, going three-at-a-time until I get to the final two, who you might be able to guess, though the ordering may remain a mystery.

Links to past posts:

• 50-48, 47-45, 44-42, 41-39, 38-36, 35-33, 32-30, 29-27, 26-24, 23-21, 20-18, 17-15

No. 14: BRETT FAVRE

Regular: 17th, Peak: 17th, Playoffs: 14th

Brett Favre has almost as many accolades as any quarterback, winning three MVPs (back-to-back-to-back), three First-Team and three Second-Team All-Pro selections, quarterback for the Hall-of-Fame All-1990s Team, and one of 10 quarterbacks all-time on the NFL100 team. Favre is tied for second with Peyton Manning for most regular season wins (186), and is tied for the seventh most playoffs wins (13). When Favre retired, he had the most yards and touchdowns ever, and still ranks fourth in each category, behind Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Manning.

Favre was generally considered highly engaging to watch, and his carefree yet never-give-up style made all Packers games must-watch television, and likely helped him earn some plaudits that many not have been fully earned. The high and positives with Favre were extremely high, but his style of play also resulted in lows. Favre is still the all-time leader in interceptions and fumbles, two records that likely will never be broken as the league-wide rates of both have declined over time. Favre only led the NFL in passing efficiency once (6.25 ANY/A in 1995), but he was a high volume passer, consistently topping 550 attempts, leading the league three times.

It’s strange that Favre could have so many seasonal accolades, and yet be relatively weak in the peak play ranking, but he often won awards that exceeded his efficiency ranking. Two of Favre’s MVP and First-Team All-Pro seasons his ANY/A ranking wasn’t first (behind Dan Marino in 1996 and Steve Young in 1997), but his team had the best record in the NFL at 13-3 both seasons. Favre earned a Second-Team All-Pro selection and was second in MVP voting in 2002, despite being 16th in ANY/A (the Packers still went 12-4).

Postseason success was another era where Favre looks merely good, not great. He won one Super Bowl, and was 13-11 as a starter in the playoffs. His 6.2 ANY/A playoff average was very strong, but not impactful enough to drive his playoff value ranking into the top-10. The Dallas Cowboys dynasty of the early 2000s derailed three of Favre’s best teams, beating him in the playoffs in 1993, 1994 and 1995.

I don’t want to make this section be entirely negative towards Favre, but I think it’s useful to point out the disconnect between this ranking and his common perception as a top-10 quarterback of all-time. I can also concede that not everything has to be about rigid measurements of value, as Favre was unequaled in the incredible throws and plays he could make, and probably had more emulators than anyone of his era.

No. 13: KURT WARNER

Regular: 29th, Peak: 19th, Playoffs: 6th