The QB GOAT Series: 26-24

A Hall-of-Fame candidate on the bubble, plus two recognized all-time greats

I wrote up the methodology for how I measure quarterback career value and highlighted a few honorable mentions in a post last week.

I don’t agree 100% with all the rankings, but the beauty of stats-based analysis is that we can take representative data from nearly one million quarterback dropbacks over a century of the modern NFL to rank-order quarterbacks by value. Good luck watching, grading and comparing every quarterback snap from 1947 to 2022 and then forming your own film-watcher list.

I’m going to take this list in smallish chucks, going three-at-a-time until I get to the final two, who you might be able to guess, though the ordering may remain a mystery.

Links to past posts:

• 50-48, 47-45, 44-42, 41-39, 38-36, 35-33, 32-30, 29-27

No. 28: MATT RYAN

Regular: 26th, Peak: 23rd, Playoffs: 26th

Matt Ryan’s career value plot has its proportions somewhat thrown out of whack by his 2016 MVP regular season and playoff ride all the way to a Super Bowl appearance. Outside of that, Ryan had 12 other positive value seasons, only truly losing value in his final season in 2022.

Ryan’s impact on the Falcons franchise was immediate, after being taken third overall in the 2008 NFL draft. The franchise had been on a multi-year decline before taking Ryan, going from 11-5 and a trip to the Conference Championship in 2004, then falling for two seasons to 7-9 before Michael Vick was suspended, then all the way to 4-12 in 2007. The Falcons offense went from dead last in EPA per play in 2007 to seventh in Ryan’s rookie season, earning him Offensive Rookie of the Year honors and the Falcons an 11-5 record, playoff birth, and Wild Card loss.

Ryan may have gotten a little too much credit for the Falcons turnaround from the 4-12 finish the prior year. He was replacing Joey Harrington, statistically the worst quarterback in the NFL, the roster included 4x Pro Bowler and 1x All-Pro Roddy White in the prime of his career, and Michael Turner led a rushing attack that was second in the NFL in attempts and yards (at a healthy 4.5 yards per carry).

Ryan’s MVP 2016 season didn’t come out of nowhere, but in his first year with Kyle Shanahan at offensive coordinator in 2015 he was 9th in EPA per dropback. His ANY/A jumped a full 2.7 yards per dropback that season, almost 1.5 yards higher than in any other season in his career. Ryan led the NFL in yards per attempt (9.3), touchdown percentage (7.1%), the seventh best interception rate (1.3%), and highest yards per completion (13.3).

It’s possible Ryan wouldn’t have won MVP if Tom Brady hasn’t missed four games to deflategate suspension, as his 25 (of 50) votes wasn’t overwhelming. In the playoffs, Ryan and the Falcons offense was on fire, scoring a combined 82 points in the Divisional Round and Conference Championship, and put up another 21 in the Super Bowl. As we all know, that and a pick-6 from the Falcons defense wasn’t enough to hold off Brady and the Patriots in the second half, in the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history.

Outside of the 2016 Super Bowl run, Ryan didn’t have much success in the playoffs. the Falcons were 2-5 in those other postseasons, going one-and-done in Ryan’s first three appearances, averaging a lowly 3.4 ANY/A over 120 dropbacks. Ryan played well in the 2012 playoffs, but 396 passing yards and three touchdowns wasn’t enough to beat the 49ers. In 2017, the offense fell apart in Philadelphia in the Divisional Round, only scoring 10 points, failing to score on 4th & Goal from the 2 on their final drive of the game.

One fair critique, in my opinion, for Ryan being so high on this countdown is the support he had from receiving weapons during his career. Ryan’s top-3 career targets were possibly his era’s best Julio Jones (1,203 targets), prime Roddy White (1,055) and older-yet-effective Tony Gonzalez (590). When Jones missed 11 games in 2013 due to injury - and an aging White didn’t hit 100 targets - Ryan had the worst efficiency of his career (17th in EPA per dropback), and the Falcons finished 4-12. I think Ryan is very much on the bubble for making the Hall of Fame, though I’m sure you can find certain opinions in both directions.

No. 27: BART STARR

Regular: 40th, Peak: 57th, Playoffs: 3rd