You can find all the previous editions of the Bayesian Quarterback Rankings here, and the backlog for Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency is here.
GO-FORWARD PROJECTED ADJUSTED EFFICIENCY
This update includes a pretty big re-work of the methodology, which projects more useful EPA per game numbers, along with details on exactly how those projections have moved from the prior week and through the season.
Additions to this update include:
Removing the YAC and sack adjustments from the adjusted EPA data going into the model, with testing confirming those are less “luck”-based than contextual information that enhances projection accuracy.
Giving additional weight to “breakout” seasons (those occurring in years 2-4 that are +0.1 adjusted EPA higher than any previous season) to mitigate poor prior performance that’s less predictive.
Establishing a “starter” designation that raises their draft prior to match franchise quarterbacks taken in that range, not backups filling in. The starter designation is phased in over the first 1,000 career snaps.
“Stretching” (or shrinking) the projections to match the current EPA efficiency environment. We’ve been in a phase of enhanced efficiency since roughly the quarter-point of the 2025 season.
Capping older season results at +/- 1.5 standard deviations to smooth outlier effects that are less meaningful to today’s projections.
Lowering the weight of prior-team results to roughly 50% of current-team results.
These changes were all made through the iterative process of extensively testing ideas and measures at different levels and choosing the parameters that ended up with the most predictive power.
These rankings are for the go-forward projections of adjusted quarterback efficiency as of this week. They do not account for opponent strength or injuries to supporting cast, both of which go into the weekly Power Rankings.
Speaking of power rankings, this update to the Bayesian rankings and projections has been highly useful in determining quarterback adjustments when a team’s starter changes due to injury or benching.
In the tables below, I also included the adjusted EPA per play rankings for each quarterback over 2026 (min 100 play involvements) and the prior nine seasons (minimum 300 plays) so you can see the evidence going into the projections.
Older data is decayed over time, so the 2026 and 2025 EPA per play data matters more than data from prior years. That said, older data can’t be fully discounted, or else you miss bounce-back performances by great quarterbacks, like Aaron Rodgers returning to form after a few poor statistical seasons and winning his third and fourth MVPs in 2020 and 2021.
For this analysis, I’m including those quarterbacks who might be out in Week 9 but will eventually be returning as starters, such as Sam Darnold (he won’t be benched, right?), and I’m replacing Lamar Jackson with Jacoby Brissett, Brissett with Gardner Minshew, and Tanner McKee with Joe Milton. The Philadelphia Eagles’ quarterback situation will be fluid going forward.
Patrick Mahomes had a good efficiency game in a loss to the Denver Broncos, but still ceded ground to Josh Allen at the top. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season, Allen leads all in adjusted EPA per play, and he’s the odds leader in the 2026 NFL MVP race.
Joe Burrow jumped to a virtual tie with Brock Purdy in MVP chance after Week 7, and separated a bit with a comeback win with insane box score totals (462 yards and five touchdowns) against the Tennessee Titans.
Purdy is still up more season-to-date, but saw his tier-mates Burrow and Jordan Love rise significantly while the San Francisco 49ers were on bye. Love isn’t performing as well by adjusted quarterback efficiency (AQE) as last season, but he’s been on a tear the last several weeks. He rose from seventh to fifth this week among quarterbacks included in this week’s rankings.
Drake Maye has quietly been outstanding this year, and his Bayesian projection has benefited more than others due to his relative lack of historical evidence coming into this season. That’s a fancy way of saying we should have been a bit more skeptical of Maye with only one great year on his resume, but he’s proving it wasn’t a fluke.
Jared Goff has had a great season, but his Week 8 was mostly managing the game and handing the ball off to the explosive Jahmyr Gibbs. Dak Prescott also had a lower volume and lower efficiency Week 8.
