The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Rams (-6.5, 73%) vs Chargers
Strong defensive performance by the Los Angeles Rams against inter-city rival Los Angeles Chargers. The Rams held the Chargers offense to a 29.5% success rate (excluding garbage time, < 1% WP) and generated two turnovers (-13.8 EPA).
The game was somewhat close early on significant penalty (+6.8 EPA) and special teams advantages (+2.7 EPA) for the Chargers, with the Rams struggling to keep drives alive on third downs (3 for 11, -10.4 EPA).
