The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Lions (-3, 62%) vs Vikings
The Detroit Lions got the win at home against the Minnesota Vikings, giving the road team its first loss of the season. The adjusted scores saw the Vikings roughly equal, based on equivalent offensive success rates and the Lions’ advantage on usually fluky special teams and penalties (+3.9 EPA).
Neither team was successful on late downs, though counting penalty conversions gets the Lions closer to even (-1.6 EPA). The Vikings offense wasn’t horrible on a play-by-play basis, but couldn’t extend drives or get anything going on the ground.
What’s likely off about the adjusted scores model’s assessment of the contest is how the Lions used rushing success to alter their pass rate (-15.5 versus expected) and make atypical explosive plays on the ground. The Lions averaged 6.3 yards per carry to only 5.3 yards per dropback.
There were a lot of negative plays among the most impactful in the game, reflecting the Vikings strong defense and the lack of explosiveness of their offense.
Jared Goff only had 176 yards passing, putting a cap on the production of Amon-Ra St. Brown (46 yards).
The generally negative nature of EPA holds down Jahmyr Gibbs’ 23 carries for 153 and a score to -0.9 EPA. Obviously, his production was worth a ton more than the average for 23 running back designed runs.
Kyler Murray continues his strong connection with T.J. Hockenson, this week finding him four times for 58 yards and a score on five targets. The struggles getting Justin Jefferson going continued, only catching five of nine targets for 33 yards, but adding a touchdown.
The Vikings only had 46 rushing yards on 14 carries (-5.0 EPA).
Jared Goff didn’t have to do a ton with the strong support from his rushing attack, and he was harassed by the Vikings defense into four sacks and an interception (-10.0 EPA).
Kyler Murray was a bit more productive, but he hasn’t shown the ability to carry the Vikings offense without a decent running game. The formula for the Vikings to win the game was for the defense to play as well as it did, and for Murray to drive some efficiency by running and limiting mistakes. He did have +2.1 EPA on runs, but lost 8.8 expected points with an interception and three sacks.
The win puts the Lions slightly ahead of the Vikings in NFC North odds, though the Vikings are still a game ahead in the standings.
Jets (-1.5, 54%) vs Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders win a shootout with the New York Jets, raising their record to 4-4 and giving Kirk Cousins at least another week of starting action. As of the end of the early window, the Raiders’ playoff probability is up to roughly 25%.
The adjusted scores didn’t see the Raiders as that much better than the Jets, with roughly equal success rates and the huge benefit of a +6.0 EPA kickoff return touchdown by Dylan Laube, plus a +5.1 EPA advantage in penalties.
