This week’s power rankings include the major update of the methodology from last week, plus a few tweaks this week. You’ll see that many of the visuals have changed, and I’m also directly comparing the implied Week 7 win probabilities and point spreads from my power rankings to what prediction markets and sportsbooks are projecting.
The major additions to the methodology are as follows:
Better adjustments for non-quarterback injury clusters
Better decay weighting on older results to improve predictive power
Adjusting dropback efficiencies for PFF grading inconsistencies
Using the Bayesian Quarterback Rankings to estimate quarterback change effects
Daily updating of the paid subscriber Google sheet for injuries and other relevant news items
For more info, you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts here, which detail the previous methodology.
TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH
This plot shows the SOS-adjusted performance for every team in their 2026 games. At the risk of confusing things further, I added arrows next to the team logos to show how they have moved week-over-week. The diagonals represent a 55/45 mix for offense/defense strength, so teams along the same diagonal are roughly equal in total strength.
The week-over-week movements are much smaller here than we saw post-Week 5, especially in the top tiers of 2026 performers. Remember: this is the tiering for 2026 performance only, and the relative positioning is not equivalent to the power rankings you’ll find below.
Of the top teams, the Chicago Bears had the biggest jump, getting slightly better offensively, and receiving a more substantial upgrade on defense. The final point differential over the Atlanta Falcons was only eight points, but the adjusted scores saw the performance as much better (14 adjusted-point differential), which is also why the Falcons tumbled offensively into the bottom-4 (that includes Cooper Rush starts, which are fully adjusted out of the power rankings).
The Baltimore Ravens’ defense took a hit for not beating up more on an awful Cleveland Browns offense. And the Houston Texans defense got crushed after the shootout in London.
I guess the Dallas Cowboys should still be favored in an NFC East that some team has to win. But their SNF showing against the Green Bay Packers was poor enough offensively to drop them into the bottom-half of the NFL in 2026 performance.
POWER RANKINGS VERSUS THE BETTING MARKETS
Let’s start with the power rankings (exact numbers updated daily for injury news on the subscriber Google sheet) before heading to the markets.
*Power rankings and “Model to Market” analysis updated as of 10/20, 10:30am. Assumptions built into the rankings are that Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson are playing, and I think that’s the way to go since my numbers don’t show a disconnect on one of those teams in Week 7, and I think the other is correct (more on this later).
