You can find all the previous editions of the Bayesian Quarterback Rankings here, including a methodology primer in the preseason rankings and the backlog for Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency is here.
GO-FORWARD PROJECTED ADJUSTED EFFICIENCY
These results are the ranking for the go-forward projections of adjusted quarterback efficiency this season. I also included the adjusted EPA per play rankings for each quarterback over 2026 (min 60 dropbacks) and the last five seasons (minimum 300 dropbacks) so you can see the evidence going into the projections.
Older data is decayed over time, so the 2026 and 2025 EPA per play data matters more than those from prior years. That said, older data can’t be fully discounted, or else you miss bounce-back performers of great quarterbacks returning to form, like Aaron Rodgers returning to form after a few poor statistical seasons and winning his third and fourth MVPs in 2020 and 2021.
“Percentile” is the mean (“best guess”) projection as a percentile of historical franchise quarterback results (min 1K career dropbacks).
I’m going to intuitively group the quarterbacks into tiers based on the similarity of their projected percentiles.
TIER 1
The top-two quarterbacks in their own tier, with a bit of a drop to the rest of the NFL. I know many will be annoyed that Patrick Mahomes is still leading, but he hasn’t been especially bad this season, and he’s accumulated enough goodwill from the model with his insane number over the first six years of his career to stay afloat.
Josh Allen has nearly closed the gap, rising from the 93rd percentile projection in the preseason to the 95th now, meaning a few more weeks of outperformance relative to Mahomes will cause the long-awaited flip in the rankings. Allen has been consistently a top-tier quarterback since his third-year leap in 2020.
