Week 4 NFL Power Rankings

Bills jump to the front of the top tier. Vikings into the top-10, but more based on their defense than the surprising play of their quarterback

For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the initial offseason rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with the Week 1 rankings.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.

The defensive and offensive strength numbers above are estimated for how much each unit would contribute to point differential against an average team on a neutral field.

I widened the arbitrary diagonal tiering lines for this week to illustrate that really any of the top-5 teams in strength could rearrange over a couple weeks of strong/weak results. This week, the Buffalo Bills jumped up to the top, following a trashing of the Jaguars on MNF, and disappointing results from the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs won, but not convincingly. The 49ers didn’t drop as much as you might expect because their loss to the Rams was closer than the actual score differential, plus the previous loss to the Vikings is now viewed through the SOS lens as a tough game on the road against a top-10 opponent.

Speaking of the Minnesota Vikings, the numbers are believing their 3-0 start somewhat, though mostly on the defensive side of the ball. The Vikings look like potentially the best defense in the NFL, holding down the powerhouse 49ers a week ago, and then dismantling the Texans in Week 3. Maybe they could be viewed even higher in the rankings if the projections were more positive on Sam Darnold, but it’s still going to take more time with stronger results from the Vikings offense to push them to a rating well above average. For all the positive highlights we’ve seen, Darnold is still 9th in EPA per play, not into the elite category this year.

UNEXPECTED POINTS POWER RANKINGS