Week 3 Monday Night Football: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Bills-Jaguars and Bengals-Commanders

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

BUF-JAX

This was a classic beatdown where the Jags offense went punt, FG, INT and then looked at the scoreboard the next drive and saw an almost insurmountable 27-3 deficit. For good measure, the Bills added on another touchdown before halftime after a short series and punt for the Jags, raising their in-game win probably basically to 100% with 30 minutes of football yet to be played.

The Bills came out relying on new MVP-frontrunner Josh Allen and the passing game, only running the ball twice versus 13 dropbacks when outside of the red zone on their first two touchdown drives. It worked to perfection, with the Jags looking like they were missing a defender in both the short and intermediate areas that Allen attacked ruthlessly. The Bills’ overall efficiency was at the 99th percentile, driven up +0.64 EPA per dropback.

The Jags offensive felt like a slog from the beginning, but it’s honestly game to judge watching a game where the opponent gets the ball first and hits the end zone on every drive. The Jags were down 20-3 after only being forced to punt once, and then things got worse from there.