Week 3 Sunday Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Raiders-Panthers, Seahawks-Dolphins, Cardinals-Lions, Cowboys-Ravens and Rams-49ers

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LV-CAR

Even as someone who advocated for the benching of Bryce Young before the official announcement, I feel bad that his replacement hit a 95th percentile outcome this week, leading to the wild conclusion that Young was even worse than you may have thought. I love Andy Dalton (shoutout to my 2015 fantasy teams), but he’s not putting up numbers like this every week, or perhaps any week the rest of the season.

The Panthers hit the 87th percentile in EPA efficiency, tying their best number from last season. Their 50.8% success rate was higher than any week that Young started. The Raiders actually weren’t that bad in success rate passing the ball, but turnovers mitigated their success, and their rushing attack was extremely negative.

Gardner Minshew’s fourth quarter interception and third quarter failed 4th & 1 conversion were two big negatives for the Raiders (-8.9 EPA). Dalton displaying previously missing chemistry with Panthers’ receivers, especially Diontae Johnson, who tallied eight catches, 122 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets.

Dalton put together a highlight reel of throws that everyone on social media saw on loop Sunday afternoon. Perhaps just as importantly, he didn’t produce many negatives, taking only two sacks for 13 yards lost.

Aidan O’Connell was decently efficient, but the stakes were nil when he entered the game.

SEA-MIA

I’m putting an early claim on the Seahawks being the most overrated team in media power rankings on Monday. Yes, they’re 3-0. But their opponents are all bottom-5 by my numbers, and even against the hapless Dolphins offense this week my adjusted scores have them only better by five points.