Wild Card Round Saturday Football: Advanced Reviews
All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Panthers-Rams & Bears-Packers
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
CAR vs LA (-10)
The Los Angeles Rams escape against the Carolina Panthers, winning on a come-from-behind touchdown late in the fourth quarter. The Rams were 10-point favorites going into the game and led 14-0 midway in the second quarter, giving them an estimated 95% win probability only 18 minutes into the game. However, the Panthers marched all the way back to take a 31-27 lead with 2:30 remaining, before the Rams got the final winning score.
Interestingly, the Rams weren’t unlucky to have such a close encounter by the advanced stats, unlike the fluky loss they suffered to the Panthers in Week 13 of the regular season. In that game, the Rams were massively more successful play-by-play on offense, but the Panthers were able to win on the back of a +3 turnover differential and +13.2 EPA converting all three of their fourth down chances.
The point totals for both teams were supported by extreme red-zone success, as the Panthers turned all four of their trips into touchdowns, and the Rams going 4-for-5. The Rams averaged 5.7 yards per play to the Panthers at 5.2, and outperformed in EPA efficiency in both the passing and rushing phases.
