The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Rams (-12.5, 87%) vs Cardinals
The Los Angeles Rams were, by far, the biggest favorites of the week, yet adjusted scores didn’t see the Arizona Cardinals as lucky winners. The Cardinals were in the game all the way, mostly playing either with the lead or in a tied contest; they had a slightly better offensive success rate, though both teams underperformed in EPA efficiency.
The Cardinals were values according to my power rankings, especially if you consider it proportionally: 19% projected win probability versus the market at 13%.
