The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Browns vs Ravens (-3, 61%)
The adjusted scores agree that the Cleveland Browns deserved the win, though the Baltimore Ravens appeared in control for most of the game. The Ravens’ advantage on late downs (+7.7 EPA differential on third, +1.8 on fourth) was partially offset by a huge Derrick Henry fumble lost (-5.0), the only turnover of the game.
The Unexpected Points Power Rankings showed the strongest edge of the week on the Browns, with a projected 48% win probability versus prediction markets at roughly 39%. It appears my numbers were lower on Tyler Huntley, who probably played above his actual ability in an overtime win against the Atlanta Falcons last week.
The Ravens began the game with a touchdown on 4th & Goal from the 2-yard line, then a field goal from only 34 yards out. Their remaining possessions went punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, missed 49-yard field goal, fumble lost, punt and punt.
This was the Ravens’ worst offensive game of the season by EPA efficiency (29th percentile), with horrendous rushing losses (-10.8 EPA), led by the previously mentioned Henry fumble.
The team box score stats were nearly matching in yards (237 Browns, 235 Ravens), first downs (14, 13), and yards per play (4.0, 4.1).
The biggest play of the game by win probability added was a 33-yard catch by Jerry Jeudy that set up the game-winning field goal.
There wasn’t a ton of offensive production to go around, so Jeudy played well to generate +5.9 EPA on only four targets.
You’ll find more green and red on the Ravens’ table, though star players like Zay Flowers and Derrick Henry severely underperformed expectations.
Tyler Huntley had the better numbers versus Deshaun Watson, though neither quarterback put much into the box score. They were able to offset massive sack losses (eight taken combined) with some rushing success, although the EPA gains on those 13 carries netted to only marginal gains.
The markets aren’t buying the 4-2 Browns (-16 point differential), though their chance to win the division rose from around 5% pre-game to 11%. The Ravens took a tumble from 61% to 46%.
