The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2022-2026 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Jaguars (-2.5, 56%) vs Texans in London
The adjusted scores see this as a bit of a lucky win for the Houston Texans over the Jacksonville Jaguars, who had material home-field advantage playing in London for the second straight week. The Unexpected Points Power Rankings showed a modest edge on the Texans as of Sunday morning, with a projected 48.1% win probability versus prediction markets at roughly 44%.
I think the adjusted scores might be taking away too much credit from the Texans. This was a game with both defenses getting carved up, and the Texans outgained the Jags 7.2 yards per play to 6.1 on the back of more explosive plays.
Both teams posted strong offensive success rates and EPA efficiencies, but the Texans did a better job maximizing their successes, gaining +5.8 EPA on late downs (5-for-11), versus the Jags at -3.1 EPA (7-for-13), with most of their loss coming on a failed fourth down try. Plus, the Texans got two conversions via penalty (+5.1 EPA), including a defensive too many men on the field on 4th & 1.