The WP graph you're using clearly factors in the Vegas line at the start, but does that still affect odds into the second half? Like if the Lions had been down 27-10 to the Jets instead of the Bills, would this graph show them with much higher odds to come back and win?
Yes, it would show higher odds to come back against a worse team. The win probability factors in betting line. The thing that it could potentially miss is whether the trailing team strength (and that of the leading team) is based on good offense or good defense. Presumably, a high-powered offense has a better chance of making a comeback than a balanced or defensive team of the same overall strength.
The WP graph you're using clearly factors in the Vegas line at the start, but does that still affect odds into the second half? Like if the Lions had been down 27-10 to the Jets instead of the Bills, would this graph show them with much higher odds to come back and win?
Yes, it would show higher odds to come back against a worse team. The win probability factors in betting line. The thing that it could potentially miss is whether the trailing team strength (and that of the leading team) is based on good offense or good defense. Presumably, a high-powered offense has a better chance of making a comeback than a balanced or defensive team of the same overall strength.