The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2026-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Bills (-5.5) vs Lions
The Buffalo Bills secure the win in the first game ever at Highmark Stadium in a shootout with the Detroit Lions. The adjusted scores have the Bills’ 10-point victory being fairly accurate, as they posted an outstanding 57.6% success rate (in non-garbage time), averaged 6.5 yards-per-play and converted all five of their red-zone possessions into touchdowns.
From a win probability perspective, the game wasn’t as close as the final score. The BIlls reached 90% win probability before the end of the first quarter, then rising as high as 97% with their third touchdown only three minutes into the second quarter.
Things got a little interesting when the Lions took their opening second-half drive for a touchdown making the score 27-17. Even still, their win probability never got over 10% in the second half.
However good you think the Bills’ offense is right now, this has to be accounted for as a poor showing for the Lions’ defense. Alarm bells are ringing on that side of the ball, after giving up 30 points to the New Orleans Saints at home in Week 1 - albeit including a touchdown in overtime. The Lions get a bit of a reprieve the next few weeks facing the Jets, Panthers and Cardinals. Perhaps we shouldn’t panic about their defense just yet.
The Lions needed everything to go right offensively to have a chance to win, but sacks (4 for 38 yards lost) and poor rushing efficiency were the difference.
All-world running back Jahmyr Gibbs ran for only 52 yards on 16 carries, which translated to 3.5 expected points lost and a 30% success rate. For the Bills, James Cook went for 135 yards and a score on 21 carries (6.4 YPC, +6.7 EPA). In total, only four plays for the Bills offense had a negative value of worse than one expected point, versus 18 plays that generated more than one positive expected points.
It’s really the sacks that separated Josh Allen from Jared Goff in EPA efficiency, with the latter actually performing significantly better by Pass EPA. Allen juiced efficiency with his standard rushing boost, generating +3.8 EPA on designed runs and +5.8 EPA on scrambles.
The WP graph you're using clearly factors in the Vegas line at the start, but does that still affect odds into the second half? Like if the Lions had been down 27-10 to the Jets instead of the Bills, would this graph show them with much higher odds to come back and win?