Week 14 NFL Power Rankings

The Los Angeles Rams stay at the top after an "unlucky" loss, while my numbers continue to back to the New England Patriots over the betting markets

The Week 14 power rankings combine the initial, Week 1 power rankings I released and the evidence from four weeks of NFL football. The key in updating the rankings is knowing when to not overreact (Lions taking a shellacking in Green Bay) and when to be aggressively moving assumptions (maybe the Colts offense will be functional with a real NFL quarterback). Right now, the rankings incorporate roughly 95/5 mix of team strength based on this and last season’s performance.

For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the Week 1 rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with .

In this post, I’m going to walk through how my team-strength model views every team offensively and defensively for their 2025 performance going into Week 14, plus comparisons of my numbers to those derived by looking out over the next two weeks on the betting markets.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.

The Los Angeles Rams maintain their lead over the rest of the NFL, even after losing to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. My adjusted scores had the Rams as fundamentally the significantly better team, moving an actual -3 point differential to +10 in their favor. Why? Well, their offensive success rate was more than 20% higher (60% to 39%), but turnovers and horrendous late-down success drove down their EPA efficiency to below that of the Panthers.

The Panthers wildly outperformed on the highest leverage downs, including going 3-for-3 on fourth down conversions. My model favors offensive to defensive strength in go-forward predictiveness, so a somewhat poor game for the Rams defense doesn’t offset their good offensive fundamentals.

The same cast of teams makes up the rest of Tier 1B, with the notable exclusion of the 10-2 Denver Broncos. The Broncos have crept up to the top of the second tier, but simpy haven’t had the offensive production to justify putting them into the top tier. Their defense is legit, trailing only the Cleveland Browns in 2025 adjusted efficiency, by my numbers. A simple stat that reflects my assessment of the Broncos good-not-great +66 seasonal point differential, which ranks ninth in the NFL.

Another fanbase unlikely to agree with my assessments is that of the Chicago Bears. I do have the Bears moving up to the upper portion of the second tier, but that probably won’t be good enough for their faithful with a 9-3 record and coming off of a victory over the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles. If you look below at the comparison of betting-market strength to my numbers, you’ll see that I’m significantly higher on the Bears than the market. Even still, my having them as an average-ish team superficially looks like an insult.

UNEXPECTED POINTS VERSUS THE MARKET

** These are Tuesday morning numbers on the betting markets from inpredictable, which often firm up during the week.