Week 12 Thursday Night Texans-Bills: Advanced Review
The Buffalo Bills made too many mistakes to win on the road against the Houston Texans
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
HOU vs BUF (-5.5)
The Buffalo Bills continue to lose very winnable games, this time on Thursday night facing the Houston Texans and backup David Mills. The adjusted scores saw the Texans as the better team, with a slightly higher offensive success rate, though both teams struggled to sustain drives, especially in the second half.
The Texans rode out a four-point halftime lead to win by the same margin, with each team mustering only three points in the second half. The Texans defense was the story of the game, effectively stopping the high-powered Bills offense. The Texans forced three turnovers and gave up none (+11.6 EPA) and sacked Josh Allen eight times for 70 yards lost.
The Bills offense dominated one aspect of the game: making high-impact plays, either positive or negative: Nine of the top-10 plays by EPA swing came from the Bills. The Bills got explosive a handful of explosive gains, including a +6.1 EPA kickoff return touchdown, a 45-yard touchdown run from James Cook (+4.4), a ridiculous 44-yard gain on 4th & 27 (+4.3), a 44-yard gain on 3rd & 12 (+4.3) and a 23-yard reception on 4th & 2 (+4.1).
All of those gains weren’t enough to produce an efficient offense overall, with the Bills at the 18th percentile in EPA efficiency for the game, with a number of turnovers, sacks, and some fourth-down failures weighing on results.
The Texans offense was outgained by the Bills overall (261 yards to 326) and slightly in yards per play (4.7 to 4.9), but committing no turnovers and taking zero sacks juiced their EPA efficiency high enough to be materially better than their opponent’s.
Both teams struggled converting third downs, but the Bills were much superior at extending their drives, with the Texans going 2-for-11 (-9.0 EPA) and the Bills at 5-for-16 (-2.5). The Texans went 1-for-1 on fourth down (+1.6), while the Bills were 3-of-5 (+3.7).
Josh Allen uncharacteristically crushed his efficiency in this game with turnovers and sacks, to the tune of 19.9 expected points lost. I wouldn’t be surprised if Allen set a record for total-time-to-sack in this game based on how long he held the ball. My adjusted efficiency numbers will also look unkindly on how his positive production was heavily based on receiver YAC, with only 106 of his 253 passing yards coming via air yards (41.8%). Allen has now fallen to fourth in MVP odds, behind running back Jonathan Taylor and with an implied probability of winning of roughly 6%.
David Mills was worse than Allen by the numbers, simply because the basic passing game of the Texans wasn’t functional. Mills had zero big negative plays, but mostly lacked positives from big gains and late-down conversions.
Sitting at 7-4 and two games behind the New England Patriots (plus losing their first head-to-head), the Bills are now longshots to win the AFC East (implied 22% odds). The 6-5 Texans are still in the playoff mix, but have a difficult schedule sit to come, with matchups against the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, plus two critical divisional contests against the high-flying Indianapolis Colts.
