Apologies for this longer missive/diatribe Kevin, but it's at lunch where I have a second, and I really thought about it. And involves one of your (good) opinions.
Results bias in football is striking, and more prevalent than in any other sport, imo, maybe due to sample size. It's been going on forever.
In the last 48 hours we've seen Josh Allen labelled as "not a winner" while leading his team to leads as a road dog twice in the last two drives. And in the OT drive, having a receiver run a wrong route which likely would've been a TD win if not. ESPN analysts are talking about how much "better" Hurts is because he does "win."
Two weeks ago Josh Dobbs - career backup and on his seventh team in seven years - was anointed, while really not playing super well. He had something like 10 TWP's, 6 fumbles, and a PFF grade in the low sixties against NO and Denver. He is who he is, but he won two games. Vikings writers were talking about long term extensions, etc. Now he reverts to his mean - which really wasn't too far off how he played in his two wins - and they all want to bench him.
So, I thought about this, while thinking about your opinion. Fields had a terrible game last night. The Bears defense is really starting to play well. What if they followed your advice and drafted another top QB? They'd be the laughing stock of the NFL if they did that, presuming they drafted Bryce Young over CJ Stroud. The whole lot of them might already be fired.
That's just because of results bias. Your idea was great, imo. If they drafted Stroud they would look like geniuses and the Bears would be a force for possibly years. But drafting Young breeds the bad result. And, because of it, I suspect no team for the next fifty years would follow your advice of using their number one on another QB in the same situation.
Long lunch over. But, you were saved not gtting flamed for a hundred years on twitter, and I guess you can thank the Bears. Because when it comes to results bias, it's powerful in the sport and seems more often than not to end up getting everyone fired.
Agree on all points. I think the results bias seems worse this year because QB performance has been oddly decoupled from winning. We have teams like CLE and PIT on track to make the playoffs with downright poor QB play, PHI and BAL currently lead their conferences with good but not great QB play, yet the two best QB’s this year (Dak and Allen) have little shot at winning their divisions and one might miss the playoffs entirely. Herbert is almost certainly gonna miss the playoffs as his team crumbles around him.
The media/pundits/fans have been forced to choose between stats and wins, and unfortunately wins are getting all the love. I’m resigned to the fact that Hurts is probably gonna win MVP despite being only the 5th-8th best QB.
It's been such a disjointed year. Rodgers went out on the 4th play. Cousins, who I read never even missed a practice in 12 years, was injured while on pace for 5k yards and 40 TD's. It feels like a lifetime ago that Anthony Richardson went out for the year.
Jags could possibly be a number one seed in the AFC and Lawrence has been putting up good but not blowout numbers like we may have expected with a number one seed. Even KC's offense has been a bit off compared to usual. And like you noted, Herbert and Allen not even making the playoffs?
I was throwing Dak under the bus after the 9ers game, and now here we are with him looking about the exact opposite of that, in my mind. And I think we both were pretty meh on Purdy, but now I think he deserves MVP more than Hurts does. He's been terrific, imo.
2023 reminds me a bit of 2000. Back then both #1 seeds were defensive Titans and Giants teams with middling offenses, and the Ravens were dragging Dilfer with them. Kurt Warner was the overwhelming MVP leader after starting 6-0 with record breaking numbers, then he got hurt. Brian Griese was putting up MVP adjacent numbers before he got hurt as well. Jeff Garcia had a borderline MVP stat line on a 6-10 team. Peyton Manning had great numbers but lost the division to Miami. Daunte Culpepper played the Purdy role with elite stats on a division winning squad, but was thought to be a product of Randy Moss and the Vikings system.
Difference is back then they’d just give the MVP to a RB if no QB’s stood out, but that won’t happen. Tyreek Hill would be an acceptable MVP in my eyes but he has zero chance.
Apologies for this longer missive/diatribe Kevin, but it's at lunch where I have a second, and I really thought about it. And involves one of your (good) opinions.
Results bias in football is striking, and more prevalent than in any other sport, imo, maybe due to sample size. It's been going on forever.
In the last 48 hours we've seen Josh Allen labelled as "not a winner" while leading his team to leads as a road dog twice in the last two drives. And in the OT drive, having a receiver run a wrong route which likely would've been a TD win if not. ESPN analysts are talking about how much "better" Hurts is because he does "win."
Two weeks ago Josh Dobbs - career backup and on his seventh team in seven years - was anointed, while really not playing super well. He had something like 10 TWP's, 6 fumbles, and a PFF grade in the low sixties against NO and Denver. He is who he is, but he won two games. Vikings writers were talking about long term extensions, etc. Now he reverts to his mean - which really wasn't too far off how he played in his two wins - and they all want to bench him.
So, I thought about this, while thinking about your opinion. Fields had a terrible game last night. The Bears defense is really starting to play well. What if they followed your advice and drafted another top QB? They'd be the laughing stock of the NFL if they did that, presuming they drafted Bryce Young over CJ Stroud. The whole lot of them might already be fired.
That's just because of results bias. Your idea was great, imo. If they drafted Stroud they would look like geniuses and the Bears would be a force for possibly years. But drafting Young breeds the bad result. And, because of it, I suspect no team for the next fifty years would follow your advice of using their number one on another QB in the same situation.
Long lunch over. But, you were saved not gtting flamed for a hundred years on twitter, and I guess you can thank the Bears. Because when it comes to results bias, it's powerful in the sport and seems more often than not to end up getting everyone fired.
Agree on all points. I think the results bias seems worse this year because QB performance has been oddly decoupled from winning. We have teams like CLE and PIT on track to make the playoffs with downright poor QB play, PHI and BAL currently lead their conferences with good but not great QB play, yet the two best QB’s this year (Dak and Allen) have little shot at winning their divisions and one might miss the playoffs entirely. Herbert is almost certainly gonna miss the playoffs as his team crumbles around him.
The media/pundits/fans have been forced to choose between stats and wins, and unfortunately wins are getting all the love. I’m resigned to the fact that Hurts is probably gonna win MVP despite being only the 5th-8th best QB.
Great point.
It's been such a disjointed year. Rodgers went out on the 4th play. Cousins, who I read never even missed a practice in 12 years, was injured while on pace for 5k yards and 40 TD's. It feels like a lifetime ago that Anthony Richardson went out for the year.
Jags could possibly be a number one seed in the AFC and Lawrence has been putting up good but not blowout numbers like we may have expected with a number one seed. Even KC's offense has been a bit off compared to usual. And like you noted, Herbert and Allen not even making the playoffs?
I was throwing Dak under the bus after the 9ers game, and now here we are with him looking about the exact opposite of that, in my mind. And I think we both were pretty meh on Purdy, but now I think he deserves MVP more than Hurts does. He's been terrific, imo.
It's been a crazy year.
2023 reminds me a bit of 2000. Back then both #1 seeds were defensive Titans and Giants teams with middling offenses, and the Ravens were dragging Dilfer with them. Kurt Warner was the overwhelming MVP leader after starting 6-0 with record breaking numbers, then he got hurt. Brian Griese was putting up MVP adjacent numbers before he got hurt as well. Jeff Garcia had a borderline MVP stat line on a 6-10 team. Peyton Manning had great numbers but lost the division to Miami. Daunte Culpepper played the Purdy role with elite stats on a division winning squad, but was thought to be a product of Randy Moss and the Vikings system.
Difference is back then they’d just give the MVP to a RB if no QB’s stood out, but that won’t happen. Tyreek Hill would be an acceptable MVP in my eyes but he has zero chance.