The Week 10 power rankings combine the initial, Week 1 power rankings I released and the evidence from four weeks of NFL football. The key in updating the rankings is knowing when to not overreact (Lions taking a shellacking in Green Bay) and when to be aggressively moving assumptions (maybe the Colts offense will be functional with a real NFL quarterback). Right now, the rankings incorporate roughly 85/15 mix of team strength based on this and last season’s performance.
For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the Week 1 rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with .
In this post, I’m going to walk through how my team-strength model views every team offensively and defensively for their 2025 performance going into Week 10, plus comparisons of my numbers to those derived by looking out over the next two weeks on the betting markets.
TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH
*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.
Since the Indianapolis Colts struggled a bit on Sunday (though were better than the final score by my adjusted numbers), the rest of the top-tier teams have closed the gap somewhat on their 2025 performance. We also see the addition of the Seattle Seahawks to the elite NFL teams so far this year.
Remember, my rankings below still have roughly 15% weighting on pre-season team strength assumptions, meaning the Colts and Seahawks aren’t predicted to be quite as good going forward as they have been so far this year.The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots are at the top of the second tier, with several teams and a wide range of W-L records joining their tier.
The Baltimore Ravens get a huge boost in my team strength numbers versus their 2025 performance with the return of Lamar Jackson. The Pittsburgh Steelers probably have the biggest gap between my assessment of their 2025 play versus their 5-3 record. My numbers show them with a slightly below average offense and defense so far this season.
UNEXPECTED POINTS VERSUS THE MARKET
** These are Tuesday morning numbers on the betting markets from inpredictable, which often firm up during the week.
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