Week 9 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Bengals-Bears, Lions-Vikings, Packers-Panthers, Texans-Broncos, Patriots-Falcons, Giants-49ers, Steelers-Colts & Titans-Chargers

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CIN vs CHI (-2.5)

Joe Flacco was part of another wild game, this time snatching a near victory from the jaws of defeat. With 2:46 left in the game, the Cincinnati Bengals were down 14 points and thought they scored a touchdown, but it was reversed to an interception, moving their win probability down to less than 1%.

But they got the ball back quickly, scored with 1:47 remaining, got the 2-point conversion (yeah analytics!), an onside recovery, then scored another touchdown and took a 1-point lead with 58 seconds to go, boosting their win probability up to 58%.

Well, it wasn’t meant to be, as the Chicago Bears scored a 58-yard touchdown to seal the game as Chase Loveland bounced off multiple Bengals defenders and ran into the end zone.

Buried in all that craziness is the fact that the adjusted scores saw the Bears as clearly the better team, with an elite 57% success rate, and 99th percentile offensive EPA efficiency. The Bengals nearly hit the 90th percentile in EPA efficiency, despite two turnovers from Flacco costing them a combined 10.8 expected points, excluding the last-second pick that didn’t have an effect.

Flacco’s box score was absolutely absurd: 470 yards and four touchdowns on 47 pass attempts. Flacco’s +30.7 EPA on non-interception pass attempts was the highest figure for any quarterback this season.

The Bears ended up with more total yards (576 to 495), driven by a near even split between passing (293) and rushing (283). Caleb Williams had a strong efficiency game, which still leaves him at 20th in seasonal EPA per play, between Kyler Murray and Michael Penix. The 5-3 Bears are tied with the Detroit Lions in the NFC North and only half-a-game below the Green Bay Packers, with both teams losing in Week 9.

DET (-8.5) vs MIN

A very disappointing loss at home for the Detroit Lions against the Minnesota Vikings, with their offense stuck in the mud most of the game. The Lions were able to keep the game close by going 3-for-3 on fourth down conversions (+12.4 EPA), but it wasn’t enough to make up for a horrible 33.8% success rate. But the Lions were unlucky with special teams and penalties, having a kick blocked, giving up a big kick return and other misfortunes that gave the Vikings an 11.5 EPA advantage.