Week 1 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Using historical Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE) and Bayesian statistical analysis to most accurately predict quarterback performance

After only one season, Jayden Daniels projects as an elite NFL performer

You can find all the previous weekly editions of the Bayesian Quarterback Rankings here, and the backlog for Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency is here.

WEEK 1 PROJECTED ADJUSTED EFFICIENCY

These results are the ranking for the go-forward projections of adjusted quarterback efficiency starting in Week 1. I also included the adjusted EPA per play rankings for each quarterback over the last five seasons (minimum 250 dropbacks) so you can see the evidence going into the projections.

Older data is decayed over time, so the 2024 and 2023 EPA per play data matters more than those from pre-2020. That said, older data can’t be fully discounted, or else you miss bounce-back performers of great quarterbacks returning to form, like Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021.

For Week 1, I’m excluding starting quarterbacks who don’t have any NFL play involvements: Cam Ward and J.J. McCarthy. They will be automatically added in my model next week with the NFL evidence from Week 1 of the season. The baseline expectation for a quarterback drafted in the top-half of the first round is to rank in the bottom-10 for EPA efficiency, with a No. 1 overall pick a bit higher at around 20th.

“Percentile” is the mean (“best guess”) projection as a percentile of historical franchise quarterback results (min 2K career dropbacks).

The top-10 hasn’t changed a lot from the end of last regular season, though the year-over-year model adjustments can move quarterbacks up-and-down based on playoff performance, expected jumps in baseline efficiency from rookie-to-sophomore seasons and, for a handful of quarterbacks, aging concerns.

Jayden Daniels gets a bit of a boost going into his second NFL season, though it might be overstated a bit in the model. With Daniels having already performed extremely well as a rookie, the assumed higher baseline for sophomore performance could be inappropriately sized for this outlier case. Regardless, he’s only 1-2 points higher in career percentile projection (“Percentile”) than Brock Purdy and Jordan Love, quarterback he ever so slightly trailed last year.

Joe Burrow gets a bit of a bump with the year-over-year decay of older performance, meaning his relative struggle in efficiency in 2023 is now further in the rearview mirror and has a lesser effect on his projection. Burrow rounds out the Big-4 on NFL quarterbacks who will most likely compete for MVP this season.

Speaking of MVP, Josh Allen edged out Lamar Jackson for the award, despite Jackson winning First-Team All-Pro honors at quarterback. It appears the AP voters decided to split the baby and confuse the process, though I did have Allen as the MVP by my analysis. Interestingly, Jackson actually leaped Allen in 2024 adjusted quarterback efficiency when including the playoffs, despite seeing the exit earlier with the Baltimore Ravens losing to the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round of the playoffs.