THE CLAIM
The Los Angeles Rams have won three straight to get to 5-4, but Matthew Stafford doesn’t look like last season’s MVP. CBS Sports’ Week 9 overreactions pointed to nine interceptions in nine games, a completion rate on throws of 20+ yards that fell from 43% to 24%, and a deep TD-to-INT ratio that flipped from 10:1 to 1:3.
Stafford is also 38. He’s about six months older than Kirk Cousins (born Feb. 7, 1988, vs. Aug. 19, 1988), and among this season’s starters only Aaron Rodgers is older.
Has Stafford actually fallen off, or are a few bad interceptions playing outsized importance in the minds of observers?
THE VERDICT: LEAN CONFIRM
Stafford has clearly fallen off statistically from 2025. He’s gone from an elite quarterback to middle-of-the-pack, and the drop is about as steep as any we’ve seen from a quarterback his age.
But the interceptions are the wrong evidence. His turnover-worthy play rate is basically unchanged, and he was lucky on interceptions last season. What’s really gone is the high-end throw, especially down the field.
And I thought Stafford was a weaker MVP than his numbers suggested a year ago, so part of this “fall” is from a peak that was a bit inflated to begin with.
THE EVIDENCE
Stafford has gone from second to 14th in opponent-adjusted EPA per dropback year-over-year (+0.27 to +0.08, including sacks and scrambles, garbage time excluded). By my adjusted quarterback efficiency metric, he’s 12th among 31 quarterbacks with at least 150 plays.
Deep throws make up 9.2% of his attempts in 2026, which ranks 28th in the league, down from first among qualifiers last year (15.4%).
Stats like completion percentage over expected (CPOE) point to accuracy, but only on longer throws. His overall CPOE (+0.1) is close to league average, and actually right around the 50th percentile for his career. Short and intermediate throws are fine.
On throws of 20+ air yards, he’s gone from +4.9 CPOE to -10.9, completing 8 of 30 (26.7%), with one touchdown and three interceptions in the regular season. That ranks 26th of 31. It’s a 30-attempt sample, so the exact number is noisy, but a 16-point swing is not nothing.
PFF’s grading tells the same story. Stafford’s passing grade has fallen from 91.7 (first of 32) to 65.4 (27th). Big-time throws collapsed from 7.7% of dropbacks to 3.0%, and his deep passing grade went from 98.9 to 49.6.
His turnover-worthy play rate barely moved, from 3.3% to 3.6%. The decline is a loss of high-end throws, not more mistakes.
That’s also why the interception count is noise in both directions. League quarterbacks throw an interception on about 55% of turnover-worthy plays (TWPs). Stafford threw interceptions on 9 of 26 TWPs last season (35%), when roughly 14 would have been expected, and 9 of 14 this season (64%), when roughly eight would be expected.
Fumbles cut the other way. He fumbled seven times and lost three in the 2025 regular season, versus one fumble and none so far this season. All told, his interceptions plus lost fumbles went from 1.9% of dropbacks to 2.6%, a smaller jump than the interceptions alone suggest, which doubled from 1.4% to 2.8%.
The pocket isn’t the excuse either. He’s been pressured less often (27.7% of dropbacks versus 31.8%), and his clean-pocket grade still fell from 95.6 to 78.4.
Adjusting for schedule makes it look worse, not better.
