THE CLAIM
Five weeks in, the Minnesota Vikings defense is being called historic.
Wide Left’s Arif Hasan has them on pace to produce one of the best defenses of all time.
The Athletic’s Alec Lewis, citing TruMedia, has them second-best since 2000.
CBS’s Zachary Pereles thinks the Vikings defense is so good that they’re legit Super Bowl contenders.
So the question remains: is this Vikings defense the best we’ve seen in the 21st century?
THE VERDICT - PARTLY TRUE
By success rate*, the Vikings’ 2026 performance ranks third of 860 five-game starts since 2000, and is second since 2017, after adjusting for opponents. By EPA per play*, the Vikings have been very good, but not historic, ranking 17th since 2000. The best starts of the century have kept only about a third of their edge after Week 5, but there is reason to believe that the Vikings will sustain more of their defensive edge than the average among historically great defenses (see more on that below).
“Best defense in a decade so far” is fair. “Best of the 21st century” is not supported.
*Garbage time (offense win probability under 1% or over 99%) excluded. Each team’s first five games are counted by game order, so byes don’t matter. Every number is relative to that season’s league average, and is opponent-adjusted using each offense’s seasonal average excluding its games against that defense.
SUCCESS RATE VS EPA EFFICIENCY
Looking at the Vikings defense efficiency in different ways gives slightly different rankings. Here are the figures since 2000 and over the last decade.
The numbers show that the Vikings defense has been relatively better by success rate than EPA, with the latter ranking improving if turnovers are removed. This means that Vikings success hasn’t been reliant on higher variance plays, like turnovers.
Looking purely at passing defense efficiency, the numbers get a bit worse, with EPA per dropback falling, primarily due to a lack of outsized losses from sacks.
Looking across the NFL historical landscape since 2000, the Vikings aren’t as far off the chart as the 2023 Cleveland Browns defense, but they are in a virtual tie for second best with the 2004 Miami Dolphins. The 2019 New England Patriots are close, followed by the legendary, Super Bowl-winning 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
