Each week in the power rankings I compare my ratings to the betting markets. This is a first version of a standalone table that does that for every remaining game, updated automatically with the latest ratings and market prices. Games will be removed after played.
The ratings are the same injury-adjusted numbers from the power rankings and the subscriber sheet, including this week’s quarterback situations. They’re converted to a projected margin with home-field advantage (1.35 points, fit to 2026 market spreads; zero for the Bengals-Falcons game in Madrid) and a small bye-week boost. They’re then turned into a win probability with the same spread-to-win% curve I use in the power rankings.
Starting next week, I’ll also include the daily injury and starting quarterback updates feed into the model and the amount of change in corresponding team power rankings.
How to read the table
Model and Model Win%: my projected spread and win probability for the team my ratings favor.
Book: the DraftKings spread.
Kalshi and Polymkt: the prediction-market price for that same team (the midpoint of the bid and ask), read as a win probability.
Side: the team my ratings like relative to the market. That’s sometimes the underdog even when my ratings favor the other team, just by less than the market does.
Edge (pp): my win probability for the Side minus the average of the two prediction markets, in percentage points. The table is sorted by this column, but every column is sortable.
Pts vs Book: how many points my projected margin differs from the book spread, toward the Side.
