Winners and Losers of the NFL Combine: Offensive Lineman

Applying modeling based on 15-plus years of combine data to the 2024 NFL draft class

Last week, I released the results of my updated historical modeling for offensive and defensive positions on the NFL Scouting Combine since 2006, which quantified the effects on NFL value (according to my Plus/Minus metric) and draft position for all measurements and drills. I already published my model results for the 2024 class first-day(defensive line and linebackers), second-day (defensive backs and tight ends) and third-day participants in combine drills (wide receivers and running backs).

In this analysis, I’m going to apply those value models to the offensive linemen from the fourth day of drills. Below, I’ll show an updated illustrations for the model results, i.e. the attribute effects of each drill and measurement on early-career Plus/Minus (first four seasons) and NFL draft position.

I’ll then give a table with all the combine participants at each position, and their percentile scores according to the model for draft value and actual NFL value. This will help separate how combine performances will be viewed by NFL teams and how they could project to actual NFL value, very often different things entirely. Prospects with low draft scores but high NFL value scores could be relative discounts in the draft.

OFFENSIVE TACKLES

Athletic traits for offensive tackles matter a lot for NFL value, at least relative to how much they matter for pushing around draft position. Tackles don’t move as much on team’s boards based on the combine, but there are stronger correlations for NFL value with arm length, speed, vertical jump and agility.

The biggest winner according to draft status for the class was Joe Alt. The Notre Dame tackle was near the top of pre-combine consensus big boards, and may have solidified his status as OT1 over the weekend. Alt ran well (5.05 forty at 321 pounds) and was good enough in the agility drills, hitting 4.51 on the short shuttle. I’ve seen some threshold for the shuttle a big lower, but at Alt’s size, it’s a perfect fine time. Plus, there have been many NFL success within a few hundredths of a second.