Winners and Losers of the NFL Combine: Wide Receivers & Running Backs

Applying modeling based on 15-plus years of combine data to the 2024 NFL draft class

Last week, I released the results of my updated historical modeling for offensive and defensive positions on the NFL Scouting Combine since 2006, which quantified the effects on NFL value (according to my Plus/Minus metric) and draft position for all measurements and drills. I already published my model results for the 2024 class first-day(defensive line and linebackers) and second-day participants in combine drills (defensive backs and tight ends).

In this analysis, I’m going to apply those value models to the wide receivers and running backs from the third day of drills. Below, I’ll show an updated illustrations for the model results, i.e. the attribute effects of each drill and measurement on early-career Plus/Minus (first four seasons) and NFL draft position.

I’ll then give a table with all the combine participants at each position, and their percentile scores according to the model for draft value and actual NFL value. This will help separate how combine performances will be viewed by NFL teams and how they could project to actual NFL value, very often different things entirely. Prospects with low draft scores but high NFL value scores could be relative discounts in the draft.

WIDE RECEIVERS

You don’t want to completely fade the combine for wide receivers, but the historical data reflects a serious trend in previously draft classes of overvaluing traits like size and speed. In recent draft classes, smaller receivers have started to go much earlier, so that trend could be reversing. However, among receiver prospects projected to be middle or late-round picks going in the combine, a strong 40-yard dash still can push them up multiple rounds, often in an unjustified manner.

There were some ridiculously fast times from the 2024 class, but it’s also notable that the top-2 consensus prospects going into the combine - Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers - didn’t run. In fact, Nabers didn’t even participate in the measurements. It makes sense that top prospects would skip the drills, as we’ve seen a large number of recent prospects without athletic measureables on record still get drafted as high as expected. In simple terms, the downside risk outweighs the positives for highly regarded receivers.