Winners and Losers of the NFL Combine: Defensive Linemen & Linebackers

Applying modeling based on 15-plus years of combine data to the 2024 NFL draft class

Top prospect Dallas Turner looking towards the top-10 after a strong combine

Earlier this week, I released the results of my updated historical modeling on the NFL Scouting Combine since 2006, which quantified the effects on NFL value (according to my Plus/Minus metric) and draft position for all measurements and drills. 

In this analysis, I’m going to apply those value models to the first-day participants at the 2024 NFL Combine: defensive linemen and linebackers. Below, I’ll show an updated illustrations for the model results, i.e. the attribute effects of each drill and measurement on early-career Plus/Minus (first four seasons) and NFL draft position.

I’ll then give a table with all the combine participants at each position, and their percentile scores according to the model for draft value and actual NFL value. This will help separate how combine performances will be viewed by NFL teams and how they could project to actual NFL value, very often different things entirely. Prospects with low draft scores but high NFL value scores could be relative discounts in the draft.

INTERIOR DEFENDERS

I’m breaking up defensive linemen according to the PFF definitions: interior defender (DI) and edge rusher (ED). Starting with interior defenders, we can see that they gain draft value at larger sizes, but NFL value - mostly via pass rushing -as small, agile player. Unfortunately, only five interior defenders participated in the three-cone drill, but I also inputted times for those who participated in enough of the other drills to do so, with a discount to that assumed time for non-participation.

Another issue with using all the historical information is the high degree to which weight matters for both draft effect (heavier better) and NFL value (lighter better). I’m going to look at the results with and without size measures for that reason. First, let’s go through the numbers with weight directly affecting the scores.

Could Logan Lee be the steal of the 2024 defensive tackle class? It is only the combine, so probably not. But his agility drills produced outstanding weight-adjusted scores, and the model like lighter players at the position. Lee is currently ranked 210th (15th at the position) on the consensus big board, and his draft percentile is fairly low, as NFL teams prefer big, fast players at the position. Lee’s poor forty time will keep his draft stock low.