Winner and Losers of the NFL Combine: Defensive Linemen

Applying modeling based on 15-plus years of combine data to the 2023 NFL draft class

Earlier this week, I released the results of historical modeling on the NFL Scouting Combine since 2006 and quantified the effect of NFL value (according to my Plus/Minus metric) and draft position for all measurements and drills. 

In this analysis, I’m going to apply the value models, with a few tweaks, to the results of the 2023 class' combine, focusing on defensive linemen (with a note of caution on linebackers).

Below, I’ll show an updated illustration for the attribute effect — i.e., the impact of outperformance on early-career Plus/Minus (first four seasons) and NFL draft position.

INTERIOR DEFENDERS

The most correlated combine metrics for interior defenders to NFL value are weight and three-cone, with the former better as a lower number, and the latter being better to be faster.

I mentioned in the historical modeling article from earlier this week that the size correlation all about pass rush value, as bigger sizes add to the prediction for run defense value. The NFL is a passing league, and smaller, quicker player are becoming more important, even on the interior of the defensive line.

Dante Stills leads all 2023 interior defenders - who completed enough drills to qualify - in “WAR Percentile”, which is the estimate of wins from their NFL Plus/Minus value in years 1-4. His draft position correlation is much lower, even below the 50th percentile du to his smaller size and weaker vertical. Stills also benefits great in WAR percentile with relatively quick three-cone and shuttle times, especially for someone weighing 286 pounds.

Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey is a first-round prospect on many draft boards, but didn’t qualify for the model after only running the forty. His forty time and ten split were the fastest of the group, so he likely didn’t do anything to harm his draft status.

EDGE RUSHERS

The 10-yard split is relatively important for NFL value versus the draft, and the forty is the opposite. Quick, not long speed is the name of the game for rushing the passer. The vertical and agility drills are also more correlated with NFL success than draft position, though the opposite for the broad jump. Like interior defenders, a lower weight is beneficial for edge rusher NFL value, but not their draft position.

Nolan Smith had the fastest forty of the group and is at the top of the Plus/Minus percentile prediction. He matched his blazing 4.39 second forty with a 1.52 second 10-yard split. He didn’t run the agility drills which means they could be a weakness that isn’t fully reflected in these scores. Smith also posted the best vertical jump of 41.5 inches, and his comparatively lower broad jump doesn’t hurt his Plus/Minus projection in the model.

Adetomina Adebawore had the strongest performance when is comes to what the model predicts will happen to his draft position, hitting the 99th percentile. His weight adjusted metric were are extremely strong at 282 pounds, and the draft tends to like bigger edge rushers, all else equal.

Byron Young was a close second in draft percentile, and in the 95th percentile for Plus/Minus projection. His 11-foot broad jump has a much bigger effect on the former, but it was also great to see him run the three-cone drill in 7.19 seconds, giving him the most complete athletic profile of the top performing players.

Presumed top-5 pick Will Anderson didn’t participate in any drills other than the forty, which disqualified him from an athletic score in my models. But you don’t have to be a data scientist to know that 4.6 seconds with a 1.61 split probably aren’t going to tank his draft stock.

LINEBACKERS

The important thing to remember for linebackers is that athleticism is much more closely related to draft position than NFL value. We saw sub-4.5 forties for a number of linebackers last night, but we shouldn’t be fooled by speed. Coverage ability is the most significant driver of value at linebacker.