Wild Card Sunday, Cowboys-Packers & Lions-Rams: Advanced Reviews

The Cowboys crumble against emerging star Jordan Love, and the Lions exorcise demons to get their first playoff win in 30 years

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

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It’s always hard to figure out how to interpret the adjusted scores in a game that was basically over midway through the third quarter. If you ignore turnovers (I know, a big *if*) and equalize the teams’ fourth-down conversion success (Cowboys 0-for-2, Packers 1-for-1), then that alone explains the difference in actual scores. In fact, the Cowboys had the better of two excellent offensive success rates (57% to 52%), but shot itself in the foot multiple times offensively, and their defensive gave up lots of big plays and late down conversions.

By EPA efficiency, this was a relatively good-but-not-outstanding game for the Cowboys offense. Their 21 designed runs produced 4 expected points (+0.19 EPA, 92nd percentile), and they had slightly positive EPA dropping back to pass, despite losing 14.2 expected points to turnovers.

The big piece of context for all above numbers is the effect of garbage time. Through three quarters, lots of the numbers flip: the Packers led in offensive success rate (61% to 54%), the Cowboys EPA per play was negative (-0.10 vs +0.08 for the whole game) and the Packers run efficiency was stronger before running out the clock (80th percentile vs 64th). That said, the Cowboys offense wasn’t poor by the fundamentals while the game was in contention, but it did stat-pack in the meaningless fourth quarter while the Packers offense trailed off.

The Packers pick-6 to end the half was, by far, the most impactful play of the game by expected points (-10.4), but Dak Prescott’s earlier interception was even worse by win probability lost (-9.8%). The Cowboys were already down 20-0 and sitting at 8.3% win probability before the pick-6, not leaving a lot of room to fall.

The rest of the most impactful plays is full of big plays in the Packers passing game, including a 4th & 2 touchdown (+3.9 EPA), multiple touchdown passes of 20-plus yards, and another couple huge gains. The biggest win probability add of the game for the Packers was a 3rd & 9 conversion on their second drive that was key in applying major pressure and eventually leading to a 14-0 score.

He didn’t have the biggest sample of plays, but Jordan Love broke the scale for playoff efficiency with an average of +1.13 EPA on his 22 dropbacks. Love didn’t turn the ball over or take a sack against the vaunted Cowboys pass rush, and he produced most of his value with impressive passes down the field, not relying on receiver YAC. Love had an aDOT of 11.1 yards, and completed 13.1% more passes than expected (16-of-21).

Love’s EPA per play is the highest in a playoff game since 2000, with Peyton Manning’s 2003 Wild Card Round dismantling of the Denver Broncos second at +1.09 EPA per play. Manning did have the more impressive volume and counting stats: 377 yards, five touchdowns, zero sacks or interceptions on only 26 attempts.

It was a poor game for Prescott to come after an otherwise MVP-worthy regular season. He finished the game with positive EPA per play, blostered by 5.6 expected points on the ground. The mistakes were just way to much at -20 EPA on interceptions and sacks. I’m sure Prescott and coach Mike McCarthy will get most of the blame, even if it was largely a meltdown for the Cowboys defense and head-coaching candidate Dan Quinn. The Packers offense started with the ball, and proceeded to only punt once on their first seven drives, scoring touchdowns on all the five others.

DET-LA

We finally got a competitive game on “Super” Wild Card weekend, and it was worth the wait. The game with the most intersecting storylines providing incredible offensive fireworks, players fighting throw injury (some perhaps shouldn’t have been able to), and the final drive sealing the outcome. On top of the switched quarterbacks facing each other, the Lions franchise had the demons of 30 years without a playoff win to exorcise, and they were able to do just that.

Both teams were excellent dropping back to pass, but the Rams were a bit better in offensive EPA per play, partially due to a higher mix of dropbacks (+10% versus expectation), relying on Matthew Stafford to win the game, and he almost did, despite a scary hit that perhaps should have kept him on the sideline. The adjusted scores have the Rams as being slightly better, but we all know that the game played out like it could have gone either way.

All 10 of the most impactful plays by EPA were positive, with two huge touchdowns from the Rams at the top. Then there is a critical 3rd & 16 conversion for the Rams at the end of the first quarter down 14-3, which, if unsuccessful, could have led to a 21-3 deficit, as the Lions scored another touchdown their third possession.

Both quarterbacks came to play and had great efficiency in the game, though Stafford was involved in 35% more plays and his 9.3-yard aDOT (versus 4.8 yards for Jared Goff) hints at a higher degree of difficulty.

But we can’t take anything away from what Goff did against the club who were happy to send him packing with draft picks to upgrade at quarterback. Goff executed the offense at an elite level, completing 22-of-27 passes (+10.8 CPOE) averaging 10.3 yards per attempt and not turning the ball over. The Lions rushing offense looked good early and scored two touchdowns, but overall lost 2.2 expected points (82 yards on 22 carries, 3.7 YPC). The Lions will face the either the winner of the Bucs-Eagles game at home in the Divisional Round, with the Packers win sending them to San Francisco, who the Lions probably prefer to avoid considering the Packers current form.