Wild Card Sunday: Advanced Reviews

Bills survive their own mistakes, Giants win the "Fraud" Bowl on the arm and legs of Daniel Jones, and the Bengals benefit from the (second) most impactful play this season

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

BILLS vs DOLPHINS

Most observers likely thought that the Bills let the Dolphins stay in this game, and the numbers agree with that assessment. The Dolphins offense was not good, with a bottom-5th percentile success rate, converting only four of 16 third downs, and averaging 3.3 yards per play. The Dolphins scored 17 points in the first half, inconceivably averaging 20.5 yards gained on their four scoring drives.

The Bills gave the Dolphins great field position throughout the game, three times via turnover (one returned all the way for a fumble-6), once by kicking off out-of-bounds, and also conceding a 50-yard punt return. The Dolphins had one legitimate, 75-yard touchdown drive in the second half, but only gained a combined 44 yards on their six other drives in the final 30 minutes of play.

Even down when 24-20 in the third quarter, the Bills win probability never dipped below 55%, reflecting their status as heavy favorites going into the game.