Wild Card Saturday Advanced Reviews

49ers are now the favorites to win the NFC Championship, and the Jags do the impossible to come back against a Chargers team that loves to lose games that it should win

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

49ERS vs SEAHAWKS

We shouldn’t be surprised the adjusted scores had this closer than the final score. The actual score was 17-16 Seahawks with 7:15 left in the third quarter, and the 49ers benefited from from a heavy advantage in turnovers.

The success rates for both teams were over average, but the 49ers squeezed more juice out of their successes. The Seahawks’ offensive effort was admirable against the best defense in the NFL, according to my power rankings.