Wild Card Round Sunday: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Jaguars-Bills, Eagles-49ers & Patriots-Chargers

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

JAX (-1.5) vs BUF

The Buffalo Bills win an extremely close game by the final and adjusted scores, with the evidence pointing to the Jacksonville Jaguars, perhaps, being the slightly better team. The main driver of that assessment is the superior offensive success rate of the Jaguars, though the Bills were able to translate their inferior number into higher EPA efficiency. The Jaguars averaged more yards per play, (6.6 to 5.5), but the Bills generated more points through key short-yardage conversions.

The Bills had a modest turnover advantage (+1, +3.1 EPA) and were significantly better on higher variance late-down conversions. As is often the case in close games nowadays, fourth down success was key, with the Bills converting both of their tries (+4.4 EPA), both by Josh Allen plowing forward on 4th & 1, the second being a dramatic 10-yard gain setting them up at the Jaguars’ 1 yard-line for the deciding touchdown.