Wild Card Monday: Advanced Review

Dak has a performance for the ages, while Brady no longer looks ageless

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

BUCCANEERS vs COWBOYS

Through three quarters, the Bucs couldn’t pass (-0.31 EPA per dropback), they couldn’t run (-0.28 EPA per), they couldn’t defend the pass (65% success rate), and they couldn’t defend the run (50%). The only thing the Bucs had more success was special teams, and we’ll get into how the Cowboys kicker defied the odds a little later.

The Cowboys maximized nearly all their opportunities, scoring touchdowns on all four red-zone possessions, and converting nine of the 13 times the offense went to third down, including going two-for-two on fourth down. The Cowboys went three-and-out on their first two possessions, then scored touchdowns on five of the next six.

Once again, Tony Pollard outshined Ezekiel Elliott on the ground, with a 53% success rate to only 31%, leading the team in carries (15 to 13).