What to Expect from Unexpected Points this Offseason

The details on my plans for content this offseason, which will continue to give you a unique view on everything NFL

I got an email from a potential subscriber the other day asking about offseason content plans before he was willing taking the plunge and subscribing. It’s probably a good idea for me to give all of you an update on my offseason content plans, even those that aren’t fully formulated. If you’re like me, you almost enjoy the offseason as much as when the actual games are being played.

I think my advanced scores, power rankings and adjusted quarterback efficiency metrics give you a better understand of what happened on the field and what to expect going forward. That said, the major drivers of team success in the medium- and long-term happen over the next six months. The trade markets will start up soon (in principle deals), teams will have to decide which veterans to cut/sign/franchise, and months of draft analysis will culminate in the selections at the end of April.

I have a number of previous analyses produced for PFF that I will repurpose and enhance here:

• More deep-dives into different quarterback classes entering extension talks

• Offseason Improvement Index to quantify free-agent and trade value

• Pre- and post-combine prospect success modeling for wide receivers and running back

• Updated Combine measure/drill importance modeling by position, plus the Combine success model’s winners and losers by position.

• Individual prospect analysis and comparable players using matching algorithms for 20 years of college data

Beyond what I’ve done in the past, I plan to explore a number of new ideas, including more content on projections and betting markets for team totals and seasonal player props, detailed best-ball analysis with a focus on identifying late-offseason risers, and draft predictions vs betting markets using a new partnership and extensive data from Grinding the Mocks.

I’m sure there are many, many more ideas to explore over the next few months, and I can promise you I’ll continue to analyze and write-up whatever comes into my head, whether answering an evergreen question or the a smart, evidence-based take on the topic du jour. If you’re a reader of this newsletter, you’ll probably enjoying explore the same ideas.

Most of all I want to thank all of the paid and free subscribers for helping to make this a success. Unexpected Points has already broken into the top-40 paid sports newsletters on Substack, despite the paywall only being around for about a month and awkward timing starting mid-season.

Lastly, if you are experiencing any financial hardship and can’t afford a subscription at this time, reply to this email and I’ll comp you a no-questions-asked free 6-month premium subscription.

Thanks, Kevin