Weekly Commentary & Review #9

The Jonathan Taylor trade saga moves into the regular season, and the Vikings make T.J. Hockenson the highest paid tight end

This post looks at the storylines of the week, whether relevant articles, analyses or other news from the week that provide useful insight to absorb, or missing context to add.

THE TAYLOR CONTRACT SAGA CONTINUES

The Indianapolis Colts’ self-imposed deadline to find a trade partner for Jonathan Taylor came and went on Tuesday afternoon, with reported interest from an obvious suitor (Miami Dolphins) and another we weren’t expecting (Green Bay Packers). I discussed in last week’s commentary that the first-round pick or equivalent compensation the Colts were seeking would be difficult to get at this point in the offseason, with rosters set and injuries yet to truly set in.

The “solution” at this point seems to give a little something to both parties: Taylor will begin the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, missing at least the first four games. This isn’t ideal for fantasy footballers who have drafted Taylor in the early rounds, but this is preferable for the player instead of a battle with the Colts to prove the extent of his conveniently timed injuries, then a string of threatened fines and game checks. Taylor will collect his relatively paltry game check while no risking an injury that could severely compromise the value of his next contract, and the Colts will keep Taylor out of sight, and in their hopes out of mind for the teams media.

The Colts will likely be bad this year, ranking second-to-last in my Week 1 Power Rankings. There’s a higher level of uncertainty with how the Colts will play this season, starting rookie Anthony Richardson. But it’s certainly unlikely the Colts will have a winning record after staring the season against the Jaguars, at Texans and Ravens, and then facing the Rams. The negative media narratives will write themselves if the Colts start 1-3 or 0-4 and Richardson struggles. Reasonable observers will understand that these wouldn’t be particularly unlikely outcomes with Taylor playing, but that won’t stop many from declaring their unquestioned certainty that his absence is causing the troubles.

The ideal model for team and player is the Christian McCaffrey trade from last season, finding a strong playoff contender mid-season willing to give up substantial draft assets and pay a larger contract as one-player-away syndrome hits its heights. The problem is McCaffrey’s receiving prowess is probably more highly valued than Taylor’s rushing explosiveness, and the Carolina Panthers had already pre-paid a substantial signing bonus on McCaffrey’s second contract (total of $30.6 million for 2.5 years of play), leaving only $9.2 million per year over four seasons for the San Francisco 49ers to pay.