Week 9, TNF Steelers-Titans: Advanced Review

Steelers move to a deceptive 5-3 on the season, but Will Levis should be the story of the game

Jaylen Warren ran through the Titans defense. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

PIT vs TEN

The Steelers come away with a comeback victory at home, and the adjusted scores back the fact that they were the better team. The Steelers were more efficient passing and running, and their success rate was materially higher (49.2% to 41.9%). The Titans had a huge penalty advantage, but the Steelers were more successful on high-leverage late-down conversions, converting half of their third down (6-of-12) versus the Titans at a lowly 23% (3-of-13). The Titans were 1-of-2 on fourth down, netting a tiny gain of +0.1 EPA.

Both teams ran the ball particularly well, with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combining to add +3.5 EPA on 27 designed runs, the latter particularly efficient (+2.5 EPA on only 11 runs) and adding value on more than half of his carries (55% success rate).

On the other side, Derek Henry added +2.9 EPA on 19 runs, but in more of a boom-or-bust manner, with a success rate of only 37%. The two most valuable Henry runs were of the short-yardage variety, including a 4th & 1 conversion (+2.6 EPA) and two-yard touchdown on 3rd & Goal (+2.1 EPA).

I think most observers will give rookie Will Levis the nod for best quarterback of the evening, despite being less efficient than Kenny Pickett by the numbers. The NFL’s Next Gen Passing charts show the substantially differences in variety and difficultly of throws that Levis was asked (or more likely chose) to make versus Pickett sticking with shorter area’s of the field, hitting on a lower completion rate over expectation (-9.1%).

Levis was under substantial duress, with a poor Titans offensive line (21st in pass protection according to Ben Baldwin’s composite ranking) struggling further with a handful of injuries during the game. One of Levis’ issues as a prospect, especially in his senior season, was a high rate of sacks taken, and pressures converting to sacks. But the fact that he took only four sacks in this game could be viewed somewhat as a win for a rookie on the road under heavy pressure making relatively long throws (10.1-yard aDOT), though there were examples of his simply holding the ball too long.

Pickett’s efficiency in this game was more of the deceptive variety, relying heavily on YAC value on short passes (5.3-yard aDOT) and not making negatives - zero sacks, interceptions or fumbles.