Week 9 TNF Jets-Texans: Advanced Review

The surprisingly favored Jets pull out the must-win, despite self-inflicted wounds

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NYJ (-2.5) vs HOU

Many were left in a state of confusion by the fact that the 2-6 New York Jets were favored, even at home, against the 6-2 Houston Texans. For what it’s worth, my power rankings would have had this game as roughly a pick-em contest, so a little higher on the Texans.

In the end, the Jets did prevail, though neither teams covered themselves in glory offensively. The adjusted scores saw the game as more narrow than the actual, which will go against many impressions. The Jets gave away an early touchdown with Malachi Corley dropping the ball in celebration an instant before crossing the goal line (officially -5.3 EPA, but the fumble itself was more like -8.5 versus a touchdown scored). Strictly by the numbers, the Jets were only 4% better in success rate, and didn’t have major disadvantages in high variance plays, outside of that fluky “fumble”.

The Texans passing game was horrible by the numbers, with a 29% success rate, and hitting just the 28th percentile in EPA efficiency (-0.09 per play). C.J. Stroud was able to make some big plays with downfield passing and scrambles, but those were offset by a strip sack fumble. The Texans did run the ball, and leaned into it incrementally, hitting the 73rd percentile in efficiency (+0.04).

The Jets also had a low-ish success rate passing, but achieved much better results at the 74th percentile (+0.26). They were a little weak running the ball in success rate, but the goal-line fumble crushed their efficiency (-0.24).

Stroud’s 15.8-yard average depth of target was the second highest for any quarterback (min 25 pass attempts) in the last five years. Without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, Stroud wasn’t able to consistently complete passes, and he made a ton of negative plays, getting sacked eight times and losing a fumble. Stroud is now outside of the top-20 in EPA per play among quarterbacks, following three poor games in a row.

The context of every dropback differs, but we know that sacks are mostly a quarterback stat, though I’m sure Stroud defenders will put these strictly on his protection. The composite pass block rankings for the Texans going into the game had them at around league average.

Aaron Rodgers had a good game by the numbers, without much volume. He had a lower upside passing game, outside of great plays by his receivers. Importantly, he kept mistakes down, after suffering a higher than usual interception rate in games earlier this season.

The Jets are still big underdogs to make the playoffs (roughly 20-25% implied probability), but they got the first of many must-win games against a stronger opponent.